{"punk":4680,"name":"CryptoPunk #4680","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/4680","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/4680.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Mole","Shadow Beard","Hoodie","Eye Mask"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":117.3619,"usd":284377,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":61.2753,"high_eth":224.7857,"low_usd":148475,"high_usd":544674},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":31.9922,"high_eth":430.5367,"low_usd":77520,"high_usd":1043226},"sigma_log":0.6499,"multiple_of_floor":3.8619,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T03:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":117.3619,"usd":284377,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":61.2753,"high_eth":224.7857,"low_usd":148475,"high_usd":544674},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":31.9922,"high_eth":430.5367,"low_usd":77520,"high_usd":1043226},"sigma_log":0.6499,"multiple_of_floor":3.8619,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T03:04:35.000Z","block":26352999,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":49,"stale":false,"label":"as of 03:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T03:04:35.000Z","block":26352999,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":49,"stale":false,"label":"as of 03:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 4+","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":10.1,"beta":0.0958,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":88.6},{"pct":-6.7,"beta":-0.0698,"term":"attr:Mole","label":"Mole","sales_12m":89,"weighted_sales":22.5},{"pct":237.4,"beta":1.2162,"term":"attr:Hoodie","label":"Hoodie","sales_12m":20,"weighted_sales":7}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 4+","seen":{"n":276,"cover1":0.736,"cover2":0.931,"bias_pct":1,"within10":0.71,"within25":0.928,"MdALE_pct":5.6},"thin":false,"sigma":0.089,"selection":{"n":293,"cover1":0.683,"cover2":0.932,"bias_pct":1.1,"within10":0.662,"within25":0.949,"MdALE_pct":6.9}},"own_sales":[{"eth":10.05,"date":"2021-04-20","block":12276997,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":203,"adjusted_eth":15.6867},{"eth":71,"date":"2021-04-23","block":12294429,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":168,"adjusted_eth":109.583},{"eth":174,"date":"2023-05-22","block":17317071,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":121,"adjusted_eth":107.9375}],"comparables":[{"eth":117,"date":"2026-03-28","punk":4770,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":123.6741,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":269,"date":"2026-08-05","punk":2311,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":257.8836,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.79,"date":"2026-03-08","punk":2577,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.4504,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.88,"date":"2026-03-06","punk":2577,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.8862,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.99,"date":"2026-02-23","punk":6318,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.5578,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30,"date":"2026-02-11","punk":6318,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.5325,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":144,"date":"2026-02-09","punk":5402,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":146.5559,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":113.5,"date":"2026-02-02","punk":5402,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":123.4968,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":1.2875,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Shadow Beard","sales_12m":55},{"attribute":"Eye Mask","sales_12m":55}],"summary":["Estimate 117 ETH (beta), 1σ range 61.3 to 225 ETH, 2σ range 32.0 to 431 ETH, confidence Low, as of 03:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 03:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, Mole -7%, Hoodie +237%.","In the backtest, Male 4+ sales landed within ±6.9% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.6% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/4680","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}