{"punk":4735,"name":"CryptoPunk #4735","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/4735","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/4735.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Smile","Mole","Peak Spike"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":38.3237,"usd":92861,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":34.1222,"high_eth":43.0425,"low_usd":82681,"high_usd":104296},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.3813,"high_eth":48.3423,"low_usd":73616,"high_usd":117137},"sigma_log":0.1161,"multiple_of_floor":1.2611,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T02:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":38.3237,"usd":92861,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":34.1222,"high_eth":43.0425,"low_usd":82681,"high_usd":104296},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.3813,"high_eth":48.3423,"low_usd":73616,"high_usd":117137},"sigma_log":0.1161,"multiple_of_floor":1.2611,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T02:04:23.000Z","block":26352699,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":59,"stale":false,"label":"as of 02:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T02:04:23.000Z","block":26352699,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":59,"stale":false,"label":"as of 02:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":10.1,"beta":0.0958,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":88.6},{"pct":17,"beta":0.1572,"term":"attr:Smile","label":"Smile","sales_12m":21,"weighted_sales":7},{"pct":-6.7,"beta":-0.0698,"term":"attr:Mole","label":"Mole","sales_12m":89,"weighted_sales":22.5},{"pct":-5.8,"beta":-0.0603,"term":"attr:Peak Spike","label":"Peak Spike","sales_12m":41,"weighted_sales":14.6}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[],"comparables":[{"eth":31.2,"date":"2026-09-21","punk":9984,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.5861,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":48,"date":"2026-05-17","punk":7925,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":43.8713,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.8,"date":"2026-04-27","punk":9984,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.3015,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.79,"date":"2026-03-21","punk":2124,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.71,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.4,"date":"2026-03-13","punk":2124,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.2834,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.97,"date":"2025-11-14","punk":2124,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.7349,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":56.33,"date":"2025-08-11","punk":7190,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.2043,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":55.3,"date":"2025-08-10","punk":7190,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.9497,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.1683,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[],"summary":["Estimate 38.3 ETH (beta), 1σ range 34.1 to 43.0 ETH, 2σ range 30.4 to 48.3 ETH, confidence Low, as of 02:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 02:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, Smile +17%, Mole -7%, Peak Spike -6%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/4735","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}