{"punk":4794,"name":"CryptoPunk #4794","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/4794","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/4794.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":4,"attributes":["Fedora","Small Shades"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":39.1641,"usd":94898,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":34.5897,"high_eth":44.3436,"low_usd":83814,"high_usd":107448},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.5495,"high_eth":50.208,"low_usd":74024,"high_usd":121658},"sigma_log":0.1242,"multiple_of_floor":1.2887,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T02:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":39.1641,"usd":94898,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":34.5897,"high_eth":44.3436,"low_usd":83814,"high_usd":107448},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.5495,"high_eth":50.208,"low_usd":74024,"high_usd":121658},"sigma_log":0.1242,"multiple_of_floor":1.2887,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T02:04:23.000Z","block":26352699,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":61,"stale":false,"label":"as of 02:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T02:04:23.000Z","block":26352699,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":61,"stale":false,"label":"as of 02:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":19.8,"beta":0.1805,"term":"tone4","label":"Skin tone 4 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":25.7},{"pct":-3.5,"beta":-0.0359,"term":"count2","label":"2 attributes (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":101.6}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":6.25,"date":"2021-01-12","block":11637779,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":12,"adjusted_eth":38.7628},{"eth":12.5,"date":"2021-02-14","block":11857055,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":35,"adjusted_eth":46.0455},{"eth":22,"date":"2021-04-07","block":12192822,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":96,"adjusted_eth":43.8413},{"eth":25,"date":"2021-05-11","block":12415427,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":124,"adjusted_eth":47.4844},{"eth":18,"date":"2021-05-13","block":12426881,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":31,"adjusted_eth":37.7255},{"eth":19.19,"date":"2021-05-13","block":12427711,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":38,"adjusted_eth":40.2196},{"eth":83,"date":"2021-12-11","block":13785684,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":15,"adjusted_eth":36.1941},{"eth":56.8,"date":"2024-03-14","block":19435815,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":139,"adjusted_eth":35.5908},{"eth":38.88,"date":"2024-09-22","block":20802745,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":279,"adjusted_eth":40.8987},{"eth":46.69,"date":"2025-07-17","block":22935427,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":19,"adjusted_eth":33.7996},{"eth":38,"date":"2026-04-04","block":24806625,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":435,"adjusted_eth":41.2583}],"comparables":[{"eth":33,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":2303,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.9783,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33,"date":"2026-06-11","punk":2303,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.6688,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":42.5,"date":"2025-02-14","punk":450,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":36.3926,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":43,"date":"2024-11-30","punk":1880,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.6693,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.45,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":8233,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.4293,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":30.53,"date":"2026-10-28","punk":8233,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.0366,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":32,"date":"2026-10-16","punk":8871,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.3703,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":39.9,"date":"2026-09-24","punk":7368,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.9917,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.19,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Fedora","sales_12m":18},{"attribute":"Small Shades","sales_12m":44}],"summary":["Estimate 39.2 ETH (beta), 1σ range 34.6 to 44.3 ETH, 2σ range 30.5 to 50.2 ETH, confidence Low, as of 02:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 02:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 4 (vs 1) +20%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -4%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/4794","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}