{"punk":4796,"name":"CryptoPunk #4796","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/4796","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/4796.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Mole","Cap Forward"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":33.5548,"usd":81306,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":30.915,"high_eth":36.42,"low_usd":74910,"high_usd":88249},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.4828,"high_eth":39.5299,"low_usd":69016,"high_usd":95784},"sigma_log":0.0819,"multiple_of_floor":1.1041,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T08:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":33.5548,"usd":81306,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":30.915,"high_eth":36.42,"low_usd":74910,"high_usd":88249},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.4828,"high_eth":39.5299,"low_usd":69016,"high_usd":95784},"sigma_log":0.0819,"multiple_of_floor":1.1041,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T08:04:35.000Z","block":26354496,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":43,"stale":false,"label":"as of 08:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T08:04:35.000Z","block":26354496,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":43,"stale":false,"label":"as of 08:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":745,"punk":3425}},"listing":{"ask_eth":144,"ask_usd":321952,"z":17.79,"z_text":"17.8σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2023-12-09T14:24:11.000Z","days_listed":1062},"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":10.1,"beta":0.0958,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":88.6},{"pct":-3.5,"beta":-0.0359,"term":"count2","label":"2 attributes (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":101.6},{"pct":-6.7,"beta":-0.0698,"term":"attr:Mole","label":"Mole","sales_12m":89,"weighted_sales":22.5}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":8.5,"date":"2021-02-16","block":11870818,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":40,"adjusted_eth":30.7518},{"eth":12,"date":"2021-02-17","block":11877036,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":56,"adjusted_eth":28.3137},{"eth":18,"date":"2021-03-09","block":12001044,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":367,"adjusted_eth":33.1527},{"eth":22.4,"date":"2021-03-15","block":12045764,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":22,"adjusted_eth":34.0368},{"eth":22,"date":"2021-03-23","block":12095706,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":282,"adjusted_eth":33.0163},{"eth":99,"date":"2021-10-27","block":13499855,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":107,"adjusted_eth":31.356}],"comparables":[{"eth":39.69,"date":"2025-03-21","punk":7029,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.2073,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":35.95,"date":"2024-11-12","punk":4620,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":37.4407,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":27.62,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":3425,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":27.6018,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":34.49,"date":"2026-10-06","punk":926,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.8587,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":45,"date":"2026-10-02","punk":6489,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":41.4535,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":32.849,"date":"2026-09-24","punk":926,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.6314,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":35,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":926,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.7983,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":42.5,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":7998,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":39.8265,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.0354,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Cap Forward","sales_12m":24}],"summary":["Estimate 33.6 ETH (beta), 1σ range 30.9 to 36.4 ETH, 2σ range 28.5 to 39.5 ETH, confidence Low, as of 08:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 08:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -4%, Mole -7%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/4796","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}