{"punk":4797,"name":"CryptoPunk #4797","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/4797","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/4797.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Mole","Tassle Hat"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":31.9444,"usd":72630,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":30.2174,"high_eth":33.7699,"low_usd":68703,"high_usd":76780},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.5838,"high_eth":35.6999,"low_usd":64989,"high_usd":81168},"sigma_log":0.0556,"multiple_of_floor":1.0511,"n1_eth":30.7154,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":31.5239,"usd":71674,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.8197,"high_eth":33.3254,"low_usd":67799,"high_usd":75770},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.2076,"high_eth":35.23,"low_usd":64134,"high_usd":80100},"sigma_log":0.0556,"multiple_of_floor":1.0511,"n1_eth":30.3111,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":51,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":51,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.4,"public_asks":407,"punk":6263}},"listing":{"ask_eth":58.7,"ask_usd":130919,"z":10.94,"z_text":"10.9σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2025-08-31T17:46:47.000Z","days_listed":431},"argument":{"cell":"Female 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4,"beta":0.0392,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":42.5}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 2-3","seen":{"n":839,"cover1":0.634,"cover2":0.871,"bias_pct":-0.6,"within10":0.802,"within25":0.952,"MdALE_pct":4.1},"thin":false,"sigma":0.052,"selection":{"n":1056,"cover1":0.688,"cover2":0.916,"bias_pct":-1.5,"within10":0.841,"within25":0.968,"MdALE_pct":4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":8.25,"date":"2021-02-03","block":11780723,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":293,"adjusted_eth":45.0669},{"eth":28.5,"date":"2021-02-21","block":11903264,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":7,"adjusted_eth":42.7357},{"eth":20,"date":"2021-03-06","block":11986795,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":53,"adjusted_eth":34.2743},{"eth":22,"date":"2021-03-11","block":12016641,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":164,"adjusted_eth":31.4181},{"eth":59.59,"date":"2021-08-23","block":13081255,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":117,"adjusted_eth":26.4052},{"eth":80.5,"date":"2021-08-25","block":13095180,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":100,"adjusted_eth":30.6564},{"eth":124.95,"date":"2021-09-01","block":13138257,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":36,"adjusted_eth":39.4489},{"eth":125.9,"date":"2021-10-01","block":13331162,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":76,"adjusted_eth":30.3272},{"eth":68,"date":"2022-02-07","block":14156415,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":265,"adjusted_eth":29.154},{"eth":55,"date":"2023-05-03","block":17176743,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":323,"adjusted_eth":29.9955}],"comparables":[{"eth":57.99,"date":"2025-08-13","punk":4898,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.4446,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.284,"date":"2026-10-31","punk":5040,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":27.8934,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":27.75,"date":"2026-10-30","punk":5040,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.2069,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":31.91,"date":"2026-10-15","punk":6239,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.8803,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":35,"date":"2026-09-23","punk":1452,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.8721,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":31.9949,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":4554,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.5876,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":29.35,"date":"2026-09-17","punk":7587,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.6466,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":27.95,"date":"2026-09-05","punk":4554,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":27.95,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.0392,"type_multiple":{"sales":442,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0107,"median_multiple":1.0107},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Mole","sales_12m":89},{"attribute":"Tassle Hat","sales_12m":13}],"summary":["Estimate 31.9 ETH (beta), 1σ range 30.2 to 33.8 ETH, 2σ range 28.6 to 35.7 ETH, confidence Low, as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 23:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (442 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +4%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 2-3 sales landed within ±4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.1% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/4797","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}