{"punk":4804,"name":"CryptoPunk #4804","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/4804","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/4804.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Wild Hair","Eye Patch"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":32.6955,"usd":74337,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":30.1773,"high_eth":35.424,"low_usd":68612,"high_usd":80541},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.853,"high_eth":38.3801,"low_usd":63327,"high_usd":87262},"sigma_log":0.0801,"multiple_of_floor":1.0759,"n1_eth":32.3769,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":32.2652,"usd":73359,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.7801,"high_eth":34.9577,"low_usd":67709,"high_usd":79481},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.4864,"high_eth":37.8749,"low_usd":62494,"high_usd":86113},"sigma_log":0.0801,"multiple_of_floor":1.0759,"n1_eth":31.9507,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","block":26351503,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":38,"stale":false,"label":"as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","block":26351503,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":38,"stale":false,"label":"as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.7,"beta":0.0457,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-3.5,"beta":-0.0359,"term":"count2","label":"2 attributes (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":102.4}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.3,"date":"2019-01-24","block":7120661,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":26,"adjusted_eth":30.0903},{"eth":0.5,"date":"2020-03-13","block":9663687,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":60,"adjusted_eth":24.9917},{"eth":1.1,"date":"2020-05-25","block":10136927,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":35,"adjusted_eth":29.4545},{"eth":2.93,"date":"2020-09-24","block":10927880,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":4,"adjusted_eth":33.1588},{"eth":5.6,"date":"2021-02-01","block":11768436,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":12,"adjusted_eth":32.9302},{"eth":17.95,"date":"2021-02-21","block":11902432,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":102,"adjusted_eth":26.916},{"eth":18.98,"date":"2021-02-21","block":11902785,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":6,"adjusted_eth":28.4605},{"eth":108,"date":"2021-10-10","block":13388593,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":37,"adjusted_eth":29.4447},{"eth":79.94,"date":"2021-12-09","block":13771384,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":59,"adjusted_eth":33.4412},{"eth":55.55,"date":"2024-01-02","block":18920481,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":275,"adjusted_eth":29.9361},{"eth":40.5,"date":"2024-04-12","block":19640866,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":489,"adjusted_eth":29.106},{"eth":38.5,"date":"2024-05-10","block":19840884,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":184,"adjusted_eth":29.7505},{"eth":26.89,"date":"2024-08-20","block":20571517,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":239,"adjusted_eth":27.9235}],"comparables":[{"eth":60,"date":"2025-04-26","punk":7446,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":40.9141,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":44.99,"date":"2025-01-14","punk":7446,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.989,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":46.5,"date":"2024-11-30","punk":7446,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.8634,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.99,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":9585,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.562,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":27.62,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":3425,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":27.2385,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":35,"date":"2026-10-30","punk":5394,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":36.8376,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":29.35,"date":"2026-10-23","punk":8427,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.3938,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":60,"date":"2026-10-21","punk":5448,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":57.544,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.0098,"type_multiple":{"sales":778,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0654,"median_multiple":1.0654},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Wild Hair","sales_12m":52},{"attribute":"Eye Patch","sales_12m":74}],"summary":["Estimate 32.7 ETH (beta), 1σ range 30.2 to 35.4 ETH, 2σ range 27.9 to 38.4 ETH, confidence High, as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 22:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -4%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/4804","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}