{"punk":4816,"name":"CryptoPunk #4816","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/4816","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/4816.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Goat","Cap Forward","Pipe"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":34.5632,"usd":83749,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":31.7036,"high_eth":37.6808,"low_usd":76820,"high_usd":91304},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.0806,"high_eth":41.0795,"low_usd":70465,"high_usd":99539},"sigma_log":0.0864,"multiple_of_floor":1.1373,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T07:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":34.5632,"usd":83749,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":31.7036,"high_eth":37.6808,"low_usd":76820,"high_usd":91304},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.0806,"high_eth":41.0795,"low_usd":70465,"high_usd":99539},"sigma_log":0.0864,"multiple_of_floor":1.1373,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T07:04:35.000Z","block":26354196,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":44,"stale":false,"label":"as of 07:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T07:04:35.000Z","block":26354196,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":44,"stale":false,"label":"as of 07:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":10.1,"beta":0.0958,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":88.6},{"pct":-7.3,"beta":-0.0762,"term":"attr:Goat","label":"Goat","sales_12m":37,"weighted_sales":16.7}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":19.99,"date":"2021-03-30","block":12142330,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":121,"adjusted_eth":34.7538},{"eth":24.2,"date":"2021-05-03","block":12358886,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":142,"adjusted_eth":36.0156},{"eth":59.87,"date":"2021-08-01","block":12939438,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":44,"adjusted_eth":55.5557},{"eth":67,"date":"2021-08-21","block":13069559,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":59,"adjusted_eth":39.1563},{"eth":86,"date":"2021-12-02","block":13724291,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":5,"adjusted_eth":35.3181},{"eth":82,"date":"2022-06-19","block":14988356,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":58,"adjusted_eth":37.389},{"eth":0,"date":"2023-01-09","block":16371445,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":196,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":0,"date":"2023-03-23","block":16886937,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":236,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":0,"date":"2023-12-03","block":18702997,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":188,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":33.95,"date":"2024-08-26","block":20609820,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":638,"adjusted_eth":36.2014}],"comparables":[{"eth":37.5,"date":"2026-07-12","punk":8340,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.1302,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.5,"date":"2026-03-29","punk":8864,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":33.2969,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30,"date":"2026-02-24","punk":8864,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.594,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":56.5,"date":"2025-08-23","punk":8864,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.4095,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":59,"date":"2025-06-06","punk":1288,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":39.5808,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":55.5,"date":"2025-05-30","punk":4155,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":36.8666,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":52,"date":"2025-05-13","punk":4155,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.9294,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":37.48,"date":"2025-02-12","punk":8340,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.6482,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.0651,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Cap Forward","sales_12m":24},{"attribute":"Pipe","sales_12m":32}],"summary":["Estimate 34.6 ETH (beta), 1σ range 31.7 to 37.7 ETH, 2σ range 29.1 to 41.1 ETH, confidence Low, as of 07:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 07:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, Goat -7%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/4816","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}