{"punk":483,"name":"CryptoPunk #483","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/483","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/483.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Mustache","Stringy Hair"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":33.3595,"usd":75847,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":30.7521,"high_eth":36.188,"low_usd":69919,"high_usd":82278},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.3485,"high_eth":39.2563,"low_usd":64454,"high_usd":89254},"sigma_log":0.0814,"multiple_of_floor":1.0977,"n1_eth":32.3769,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T21:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":32.9204,"usd":74849,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":30.3473,"high_eth":35.7117,"low_usd":68998,"high_usd":81195},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.9754,"high_eth":38.7396,"low_usd":63606,"high_usd":88079},"sigma_log":0.0814,"multiple_of_floor":1.0977,"n1_eth":31.9507,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T21:04:35.000Z","block":26351205,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":50,"stale":false,"label":"as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T21:04:35.000Z","block":26351205,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":50,"stale":false,"label":"as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.7,"beta":0.0457,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":12.6,"beta":0.1184,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":67},{"pct":-3.5,"beta":-0.0359,"term":"count2","label":"2 attributes (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":102.4},{"pct":-9.4,"beta":-0.0983,"term":"attr:Stringy Hair","label":"Stringy Hair","sales_12m":99,"weighted_sales":25.4}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":17,"date":"2021-03-07","block":11988888,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":50,"adjusted_eth":26.1451},{"eth":19.99,"date":"2021-04-08","block":12201682,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":194,"adjusted_eth":30.4469},{"eth":22,"date":"2021-04-08","block":12201949,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":194,"adjusted_eth":33.5084},{"eth":21.888,"date":"2021-04-27","block":12323790,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":120,"adjusted_eth":29.8645},{"eth":21.89,"date":"2021-05-03","block":12362143,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":21,"adjusted_eth":32.1489},{"eth":0,"date":"2021-07-09","block":12791696,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":101,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":20.39,"date":"2021-07-22","block":12873322,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":102,"adjusted_eth":30.123},{"eth":81.5,"date":"2021-08-27","block":13106247,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":103,"adjusted_eth":26.5672}],"comparables":[{"eth":32.43,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":4011,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.99,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.9,"date":"2026-05-23","punk":6068,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.4025,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.33,"date":"2026-05-17","punk":6068,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.0622,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30,"date":"2026-04-22","punk":6068,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.153,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":41.77,"date":"2025-07-08","punk":7416,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.5532,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":40,"date":"2025-06-20","punk":7416,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.0727,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":43.98,"date":"2025-04-27","punk":4875,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.6396,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":39,"date":"2025-02-02","punk":3533,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":29.9977,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.0299,"type_multiple":{"sales":778,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0654,"median_multiple":1.0654},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Mustache","sales_12m":51}],"summary":["Estimate 33.4 ETH (beta), 1σ range 30.8 to 36.2 ETH, 2σ range 28.3 to 39.3 ETH, confidence High, as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 21:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -4%, Stringy Hair -9%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/483","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}