{"punk":4841,"name":"CryptoPunk #4841","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/4841","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/4841.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Mole","Do-rag"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":28.8159,"usd":65517,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":26.1006,"high_eth":31.8135,"low_usd":59343,"high_usd":72332},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":23.6413,"high_eth":35.123,"low_usd":53751,"high_usd":79857},"sigma_log":0.099,"multiple_of_floor":0.9482,"n1_eth":32.3769,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T21:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":28.4366,"usd":64654,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":25.7571,"high_eth":31.3948,"low_usd":58562,"high_usd":71380},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":23.3301,"high_eth":34.6607,"low_usd":53044,"high_usd":78806},"sigma_log":0.099,"multiple_of_floor":0.9482,"n1_eth":31.9507,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T21:04:35.000Z","block":26351205,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":37,"stale":false,"label":"as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T21:04:35.000Z","block":26351205,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":37,"stale":false,"label":"as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.7,"beta":0.0457,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-3.5,"beta":-0.0359,"term":"count2","label":"2 attributes (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":102.4},{"pct":-6.7,"beta":-0.0698,"term":"attr:Mole","label":"Mole","sales_12m":89,"weighted_sales":22.7},{"pct":-5.5,"beta":-0.0565,"term":"attr:Do-rag","label":"Do-rag","sales_12m":52,"weighted_sales":18}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":2.88,"date":"2020-09-24","block":10927878,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":15,"adjusted_eth":32.5929},{"eth":4.56,"date":"2021-01-27","block":11738703,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":218,"adjusted_eth":27.4607},{"eth":5.74,"date":"2021-02-08","block":11817659,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":177,"adjusted_eth":29.1767},{"eth":18.4,"date":"2021-02-21","block":11902558,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":168,"adjusted_eth":27.5908},{"eth":22.95,"date":"2021-07-30","block":12929507,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":180,"adjusted_eth":26.5536},{"eth":36.25,"date":"2021-08-05","block":12965308,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":477,"adjusted_eth":24.463},{"eth":41.5,"date":"2021-08-05","block":12966761,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":128,"adjusted_eth":28.006},{"eth":50,"date":"2021-12-22","block":13857988,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":5,"adjusted_eth":27.8562},{"eth":53.83,"date":"2021-12-23","block":13863967,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":212,"adjusted_eth":29.352},{"eth":53.9,"date":"2022-05-15","block":14782117,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":184,"adjusted_eth":30.0457},{"eth":64,"date":"2023-01-31","block":16528159,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":110,"adjusted_eth":29.5332},{"eth":63.68,"date":"2023-02-13","block":16622488,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":411,"adjusted_eth":30.8624},{"eth":68.98,"date":"2023-03-17","block":16844995,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":338,"adjusted_eth":29.3851},{"eth":48.98,"date":"2023-05-19","block":17295749,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":270,"adjusted_eth":29.6869},{"eth":37,"date":"2024-12-15","block":21408757,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":104,"adjusted_eth":28.829},{"eth":39.47,"date":"2025-01-14","block":21624661,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":102,"adjusted_eth":28.9414},{"eth":36.5,"date":"2025-01-19","block":21659772,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":635,"adjusted_eth":28.8138},{"eth":38.5,"date":"2025-01-31","block":21741307,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":103,"adjusted_eth":29.6131}],"comparables":[{"eth":28.98,"date":"2026-02-23","punk":6755,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.1062,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":48.95,"date":"2025-07-23","punk":2557,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.1192,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":40.99,"date":"2025-07-20","punk":2557,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":26.0167,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":83,"date":"2025-06-06","punk":9723,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":54.9486,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":27.62,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":3425,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":27.2385,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":33.01,"date":"2026-10-09","punk":3667,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.4376,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":31.67,"date":"2026-10-08","punk":3667,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.001,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":34.49,"date":"2026-10-06","punk":926,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.4394,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":-0.1165,"type_multiple":{"sales":778,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0654,"median_multiple":1.0654},"no_clear_premium":[],"summary":["Estimate 28.8 ETH (beta), 1σ range 26.1 to 31.8 ETH, 2σ range 23.6 to 35.1 ETH, confidence High, as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 21:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -4%, Mole -7%, Do-rag -6%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/4841","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}