{"punk":4877,"name":"CryptoPunk #4877","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/4877","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/4877.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Earring","Messy Hair","VR"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-06","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-06 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-07T00:20:34.586Z","fingerprint_sha256":"76e58439a099cc8cd66c5865a3915bee905a819a57c55e8ad375b9f5abdc46a1"},"estimate":{"eth":40.524,"usd":90603,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":35.3096,"high_eth":46.5084,"low_usd":78944,"high_usd":103982},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.7661,"high_eth":53.3766,"low_usd":68786,"high_usd":119338},"sigma_log":0.1377,"multiple_of_floor":1.3335,"n1_eth":32.3833,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-07T06:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":40.524,"usd":90603,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":35.3096,"high_eth":46.5084,"low_usd":78944,"high_usd":103982},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.7661,"high_eth":53.3766,"low_usd":68786,"high_usd":119338},"sigma_log":0.1377,"multiple_of_floor":1.3335,"n1_eth":32.3833,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"76e58439a099cc8cd66c5865a3915bee905a819a57c55e8ad375b9f5abdc46a1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-07T06:04:35.000Z","block":26361068,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":10,"stale":false,"label":"as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2235.7745744284666,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-07","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-07T06:04:35.000Z","block":26361068,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":10,"stale":false,"label":"as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-07","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.5,"beta":0.044,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-2.3,"beta":-0.0231,"term":"attr:Earring","label":"Earring","sales_12m":303,"weighted_sales":71},{"pct":22.5,"beta":0.2033,"term":"attr:VR","label":"VR","sales_12m":24,"weighted_sales":3.6}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.4,"date":"2019-07-06","block":8097217,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":138,"adjusted_eth":35.7529}],"comparables":[{"eth":34.4999,"date":"2026-09-25","punk":9142,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.1206,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.5,"date":"2026-09-24","punk":9142,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.2186,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.001,"date":"2026-09-24","punk":9142,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.7685,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.5,"date":"2026-09-23","punk":4755,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.9431,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":27.553,"date":"2026-09-14","punk":4755,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.1457,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":38.9,"date":"2026-08-10","punk":2720,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":36.9659,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":58,"date":"2026-08-07","punk":4523,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":54.4859,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.65,"date":"2026-07-23","punk":2720,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.117,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.2243,"type_multiple":{"sales":773,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0656,"median_multiple":1.0656},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Messy Hair","sales_12m":48}],"summary":["Estimate 40.5 ETH (beta), 1σ range 35.3 to 46.5 ETH, 2σ range 30.8 to 53.4 ETH, confidence Low, as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-06).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 06:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-06.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (773 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Earring -2%, VR +23%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/4877","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}