{"punk":4918,"name":"CryptoPunk #4918","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/4918","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/4918.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Muttonchops","Mohawk Thin","Nerd Glasses"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-06","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-06 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-07T00:20:34.586Z","fingerprint_sha256":"76e58439a099cc8cd66c5865a3915bee905a819a57c55e8ad375b9f5abdc46a1"},"estimate":{"eth":30.2201,"usd":67565,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":27.698,"high_eth":32.9719,"low_usd":61926,"high_usd":73718},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":25.3863,"high_eth":35.9743,"low_usd":56758,"high_usd":80430},"sigma_log":0.0871,"multiple_of_floor":0.9944,"n1_eth":32.3833,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-07T09:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.2201,"usd":67565,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":27.698,"high_eth":32.9719,"low_usd":61926,"high_usd":73718},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":25.3863,"high_eth":35.9743,"low_usd":56758,"high_usd":80430},"sigma_log":0.0871,"multiple_of_floor":0.9944,"n1_eth":32.3833,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"76e58439a099cc8cd66c5865a3915bee905a819a57c55e8ad375b9f5abdc46a1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-07T09:04:23.000Z","block":26361962,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":10,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2235.7745744284666,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-07","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-07T09:04:23.000Z","block":26361962,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":10,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-07","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.5,"beta":0.044,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":10.2,"beta":0.0968,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":89},{"pct":-9.2,"beta":-0.0964,"term":"attr:Muttonchops","label":"Muttonchops","sales_12m":48,"weighted_sales":15.6},{"pct":-10.7,"beta":-0.1136,"term":"attr:Mohawk Thin","label":"Mohawk Thin","sales_12m":51,"weighted_sales":10.9}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":1.5,"date":"2020-09-11","block":10842533,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":55,"adjusted_eth":33.0326},{"eth":3.75,"date":"2020-09-25","block":10930442,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":219,"adjusted_eth":39.2974},{"eth":3.8,"date":"2020-10-25","block":11124662,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":49,"adjusted_eth":29.2359}],"comparables":[{"eth":33.4,"date":"2026-10-04","punk":5635,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.7677,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.32,"date":"2026-09-29","punk":5635,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.3283,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.2,"date":"2026-09-29","punk":5635,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.312,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":36,"date":"2026-09-24","punk":192,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.4737,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.9,"date":"2026-07-04","punk":5459,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.7577,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.94,"date":"2026-06-25","punk":5842,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.7544,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.5,"date":"2026-06-03","punk":5842,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.0745,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.99,"date":"2026-04-21","punk":5459,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.5499,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.0691,"type_multiple":{"sales":773,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0656,"median_multiple":1.0656},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Nerd Glasses","sales_12m":64}],"summary":["Estimate 30.2 ETH (beta), 1σ range 27.7 to 33.0 ETH, 2σ range 25.4 to 36.0 ETH, confidence High, as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-06).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 09:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-06.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (773 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, Muttonchops -9%, Mohawk Thin -11%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/4918","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}