{"punk":4920,"name":"CryptoPunk #4920","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/4920","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/4920.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Rosy Cheeks","Goat","Crazy Hair","Vape"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":34.5616,"usd":78580,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":31.4357,"high_eth":37.9984,"low_usd":71473,"high_usd":86394},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.5925,"high_eth":41.777,"low_usd":65009,"high_usd":94985},"sigma_log":0.0948,"multiple_of_floor":1.1373,"n1_eth":32.3769,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":34.1067,"usd":77546,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":31.0219,"high_eth":37.4983,"low_usd":70532,"high_usd":85257},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.2162,"high_eth":41.2271,"low_usd":64153,"high_usd":93735},"sigma_log":0.0948,"multiple_of_floor":1.1373,"n1_eth":31.9507,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","block":26351503,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":41,"stale":false,"label":"as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","block":26351503,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":41,"stale":false,"label":"as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":{"ask_eth":60,"ask_usd":145385,"z":5.82,"z_text":"5.8σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2026-10-15T18:35:35.000Z","days_listed":21},"argument":{"cell":"Male 4+","terms":[{"pct":4.7,"beta":0.0457,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":10,"beta":0.0957,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":89.3},{"pct":-7.3,"beta":-0.0761,"term":"attr:Goat","label":"Goat","sales_12m":38,"weighted_sales":16.8}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 4+","seen":{"n":276,"cover1":0.736,"cover2":0.931,"bias_pct":1,"within10":0.71,"within25":0.928,"MdALE_pct":5.6},"thin":false,"sigma":0.089,"selection":{"n":293,"cover1":0.683,"cover2":0.932,"bias_pct":1.1,"within10":0.662,"within25":0.949,"MdALE_pct":6.9}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.4,"date":"2019-04-20","block":7606727,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":30,"adjusted_eth":35.2824},{"eth":0.35,"date":"2019-07-29","block":8246257,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":53,"adjusted_eth":26.9141},{"eth":0.75,"date":"2020-01-04","block":9210748,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":81,"adjusted_eth":48.8967},{"eth":5.5,"date":"2020-09-18","block":10886772,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":161,"adjusted_eth":84.5872},{"eth":34,"date":"2026-06-05","block":25251814,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":650,"adjusted_eth":31.8644}],"comparables":[{"eth":34.58,"date":"2026-06-25","punk":1923,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.9328,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.67,"date":"2026-06-25","punk":1923,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.2091,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.2,"date":"2025-12-10","punk":5938,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.99,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":53.98,"date":"2025-05-27","punk":9695,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.6058,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.45,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":8233,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.0156,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":30.53,"date":"2026-10-28","punk":8233,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.628,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":30.499,"date":"2026-10-27","punk":9176,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.9989,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":45,"date":"2026-10-24","punk":8879,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":43.9593,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.0653,"type_multiple":{"sales":778,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0654,"median_multiple":1.0654},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Rosy Cheeks","sales_12m":20},{"attribute":"Crazy Hair","sales_12m":59},{"attribute":"Vape","sales_12m":51}],"summary":["Estimate 34.6 ETH (beta), 1σ range 31.4 to 38.0 ETH, 2σ range 28.6 to 41.8 ETH, confidence Low, as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 22:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, Goat -7%.","In the backtest, Male 4+ sales landed within ±6.9% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.6% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/4920","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}