{"punk":4924,"name":"CryptoPunk #4924","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/4924","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/4924.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":4,"attributes":["Pink With Hat","Big Shades"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":48.8756,"usd":118430,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":38.5007,"high_eth":62.0462,"low_usd":93290,"high_usd":150343},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.3281,"high_eth":78.766,"low_usd":73487,"high_usd":190856},"sigma_log":0.2386,"multiple_of_floor":1.6083,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T11:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":48.8756,"usd":118430,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":38.5007,"high_eth":62.0462,"low_usd":93290,"high_usd":150343},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.3281,"high_eth":78.766,"low_usd":73487,"high_usd":190856},"sigma_log":0.2386,"multiple_of_floor":1.6083,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T11:04:35.000Z","block":26355395,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":29,"stale":false,"label":"as of 11:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T11:04:35.000Z","block":26355395,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":29,"stale":false,"label":"as of 11:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.4,"public_asks":405,"punk":6263}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Female 2-3","terms":[{"pct":23.3,"beta":0.2095,"term":"tone4","label":"Skin tone 4 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":14.7},{"pct":29.2,"beta":0.2562,"term":"attr:Pink With Hat","label":"Pink With Hat","sales_12m":9,"weighted_sales":3}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 2-3","seen":{"n":839,"cover1":0.634,"cover2":0.871,"bias_pct":-0.6,"within10":0.802,"within25":0.952,"MdALE_pct":4.1},"thin":false,"sigma":0.052,"selection":{"n":1056,"cover1":0.688,"cover2":0.916,"bias_pct":-1.5,"within10":0.841,"within25":0.968,"MdALE_pct":4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":8,"date":"2020-05-27","block":10148876,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":33,"adjusted_eth":176.1739},{"eth":7.5,"date":"2020-07-05","block":10397079,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":23,"adjusted_eth":259.0057}],"comparables":[{"eth":69,"date":"2026-06-24","punk":4566,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":66.5897,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":39.9,"date":"2025-12-09","punk":4566,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":41.5261,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":58.5,"date":"2024-11-15","punk":4566,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":46.7969,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":58,"date":"2026-10-14","punk":5191,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":56.3317,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":31.96,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":6149,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.9496,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":38,"date":"2026-07-27","punk":9945,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.6536,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":49,"date":"2026-07-21","punk":53,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":46.5347,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":86,"date":"2026-06-30","punk":2654,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":81.7498,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.4657,"type_multiple":{"sales":440,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0095,"median_multiple":1.0095},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Big Shades","sales_12m":81}],"summary":["Estimate 48.9 ETH (beta), 1σ range 38.5 to 62.0 ETH, 2σ range 30.3 to 78.8 ETH, confidence Low, as of 11:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 11:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (440 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Skin tone 4 (vs 1) +23%, Pink With Hat +29%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 2-3 sales landed within ±4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.1% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/4924","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}