{"punk":4951,"name":"CryptoPunk #4951","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/4951","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/4951.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Mohawk Thin","Classic Shades"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":29.1812,"usd":66347,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":26.5261,"high_eth":32.1019,"low_usd":60311,"high_usd":72988},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":24.1127,"high_eth":35.3151,"low_usd":54823,"high_usd":80293},"sigma_log":0.0954,"multiple_of_floor":0.9602,"n1_eth":32.3769,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":28.7971,"usd":65474,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":26.177,"high_eth":31.6794,"low_usd":59517,"high_usd":72027},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":23.7953,"high_eth":34.8503,"low_usd":54102,"high_usd":79237},"sigma_log":0.0954,"multiple_of_floor":0.9602,"n1_eth":31.9507,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","block":26351503,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":7,"stale":false,"label":"as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","block":26351503,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":7,"stale":false,"label":"as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.7,"beta":0.0457,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-3.5,"beta":-0.0359,"term":"count2","label":"2 attributes (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":102.4},{"pct":-10.7,"beta":-0.1137,"term":"attr:Mohawk Thin","label":"Mohawk Thin","sales_12m":51,"weighted_sales":11.1}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":5.75,"date":"2020-09-28","block":10953046,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":33,"adjusted_eth":29.7828},{"eth":17,"date":"2021-07-05","block":12769927,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":51,"adjusted_eth":28.5619},{"eth":0,"date":"2021-07-30","block":12923949,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":377,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":78.95,"date":"2022-07-12","block":15124596,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":480,"adjusted_eth":30.8296},{"eth":67,"date":"2022-09-28","block":15635113,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":26,"adjusted_eth":29.6843},{"eth":74.44,"date":"2023-03-19","block":16862366,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":228,"adjusted_eth":29.8856}],"comparables":[{"eth":30,"date":"2026-03-28","punk":9024,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.2939,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":55,"date":"2025-04-09","punk":3713,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":38.8106,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":42,"date":"2025-02-11","punk":3713,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":34.1535,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.99,"date":"2024-11-12","punk":4409,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.8502,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.25,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":4282,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.8322,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":29.75,"date":"2026-10-30","punk":4282,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.3119,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":30,"date":"2026-10-29","punk":9018,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.0306,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":45,"date":"2026-10-24","punk":8879,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":43.9593,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":-0.1039,"type_multiple":{"sales":778,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0654,"median_multiple":1.0654},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Classic Shades","sales_12m":64}],"summary":["Estimate 29.2 ETH (beta), 1σ range 26.5 to 32.1 ETH, 2σ range 24.1 to 35.3 ETH, confidence High, as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 22:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -4%, Mohawk Thin -11%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/4951","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}