{"punk":4978,"name":"CryptoPunk #4978","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/4978","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/4978.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Chinstrap","Cap Forward","Cigarette"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":32.1103,"usd":77806,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.6382,"high_eth":34.7887,"low_usd":71816,"high_usd":84296},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.3564,"high_eth":37.6905,"low_usd":66287,"high_usd":91327},"sigma_log":0.0801,"multiple_of_floor":1.0566,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T12:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":32.1103,"usd":77806,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.6382,"high_eth":34.7887,"low_usd":71816,"high_usd":84296},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.3564,"high_eth":37.6905,"low_usd":66287,"high_usd":91327},"sigma_log":0.0801,"multiple_of_floor":1.0566,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T12:04:23.000Z","block":26355693,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":45,"stale":false,"label":"as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T12:04:23.000Z","block":26355693,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":45,"stale":false,"label":"as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-5.3,"beta":-0.054,"term":"attr:Chinstrap","label":"Chinstrap","sales_12m":42,"weighted_sales":19.3}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.25,"date":"2019-09-02","block":8472874,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":128,"adjusted_eth":25.325},{"eth":0.44,"date":"2019-12-08","block":9074326,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":14,"adjusted_eth":36.1395},{"eth":18.25,"date":"2021-03-23","block":12097765,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":21,"adjusted_eth":27.3885},{"eth":23.99,"date":"2021-07-17","block":12845763,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":111,"adjusted_eth":37.4067},{"eth":52,"date":"2021-08-19","block":13058490,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":71,"adjusted_eth":32.4293},{"eth":54.86,"date":"2023-11-08","block":18530528,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":220,"adjusted_eth":32.0615},{"eth":26.38,"date":"2024-07-27","block":20396615,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":104,"adjusted_eth":32.722}],"comparables":[{"eth":50.18,"date":"2025-09-09","punk":5661,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.1046,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":60,"date":"2025-07-28","punk":3612,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.7792,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":77.99,"date":"2025-03-17","punk":3296,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":61.77,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":50,"date":"2025-03-10","punk":3296,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":40.0027,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":48.9,"date":"2024-12-03","punk":206,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.5911,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33,"date":"2024-11-14","punk":206,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.3992,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":2303,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.9783,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":27.62,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":3425,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":27.6018,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":-0.0086,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Cap Forward","sales_12m":24},{"attribute":"Cigarette","sales_12m":110}],"summary":["Estimate 32.1 ETH (beta), 1σ range 29.6 to 34.8 ETH, 2σ range 27.4 to 37.7 ETH, confidence Low, as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 12:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Chinstrap -5%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/4978","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}