{"punk":4979,"name":"CryptoPunk #4979","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/4979","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/4979.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Dark Hair","Big Shades"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-06","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-06 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-07T00:20:34.586Z","fingerprint_sha256":"76e58439a099cc8cd66c5865a3915bee905a819a57c55e8ad375b9f5abdc46a1"},"estimate":{"eth":30.6589,"usd":68546,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.1054,"high_eth":32.2954,"low_usd":65073,"high_usd":72205},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.6306,"high_eth":34.0192,"low_usd":61776,"high_usd":76059},"sigma_log":0.052,"multiple_of_floor":1.0088,"n1_eth":30.6589,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-07T05:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.6589,"usd":68546,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.1054,"high_eth":32.2954,"low_usd":65073,"high_usd":72205},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.6306,"high_eth":34.0192,"low_usd":61776,"high_usd":76059},"sigma_log":0.052,"multiple_of_floor":1.0088,"n1_eth":30.6589,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"76e58439a099cc8cd66c5865a3915bee905a819a57c55e8ad375b9f5abdc46a1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-07T05:04:35.000Z","block":26360770,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":12,"stale":false,"label":"as of 05:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2235.7745744284666,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-07","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-07T05:04:35.000Z","block":26360770,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":12,"stale":false,"label":"as of 05:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-07","eth":30.4,"public_asks":405,"punk":6263}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Female 2-3","terms":[],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 2-3","seen":{"n":839,"cover1":0.634,"cover2":0.871,"bias_pct":-0.6,"within10":0.802,"within25":0.952,"MdALE_pct":4.1},"thin":false,"sigma":0.052,"selection":{"n":1056,"cover1":0.688,"cover2":0.916,"bias_pct":-1.5,"within10":0.841,"within25":0.968,"MdALE_pct":4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":97.5,"date":"2021-11-03","block":13545003,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":151,"adjusted_eth":31.1897},{"eth":89.99,"date":"2021-11-20","block":13650883,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":23,"adjusted_eth":30.728},{"eth":91.98,"date":"2021-11-21","block":13661118,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":58,"adjusted_eth":31.2321}],"comparables":[{"eth":30.5,"date":"2025-12-15","punk":5203,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.2028,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30,"date":"2025-12-09","punk":5203,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.2226,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":35,"date":"2025-12-05","punk":5203,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.349,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.9,"date":"2025-11-26","punk":5203,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":32.5784,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":44.7,"date":"2025-01-03","punk":5203,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":36.4778,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":49,"date":"2026-10-06","punk":5713,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":45.2617,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":31.96,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":6149,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.9496,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":38,"date":"2026-07-27","punk":9945,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.6536,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0,"type_multiple":{"sales":439,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0088,"median_multiple":1.0088},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Dark Hair","sales_12m":17},{"attribute":"Big Shades","sales_12m":81}],"summary":["Estimate 30.7 ETH (beta), 1σ range 29.1 to 32.3 ETH, 2σ range 27.6 to 34.0 ETH, confidence Low, as of 05:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-06).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 05:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-06.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (439 sales, 12 months).","No attribute of this punk has a clear premium in recent sales, so the estimate is the type multiple.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 2-3 sales landed within ±4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.1% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/4979","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}