{"punk":4994,"name":"CryptoPunk #4994","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/4994","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/4994.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Mole","Goat","Mohawk"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":29.789,"usd":72181,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":27.2179,"high_eth":32.6029,"low_usd":65951,"high_usd":78999},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":24.8688,"high_eth":35.6826,"low_usd":60259,"high_usd":86462},"sigma_log":0.0903,"multiple_of_floor":0.9802,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T05:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":29.789,"usd":72181,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":27.2179,"high_eth":32.6029,"low_usd":65951,"high_usd":78999},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":24.8688,"high_eth":35.6826,"low_usd":60259,"high_usd":86462},"sigma_log":0.0903,"multiple_of_floor":0.9802,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T05:04:35.000Z","block":26353598,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":54,"stale":false,"label":"as of 05:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T05:04:35.000Z","block":26353598,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":54,"stale":false,"label":"as of 05:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":10.1,"beta":0.0958,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":88.6},{"pct":-6.7,"beta":-0.0698,"term":"attr:Mole","label":"Mole","sales_12m":89,"weighted_sales":22.5},{"pct":-7.3,"beta":-0.0762,"term":"attr:Goat","label":"Goat","sales_12m":37,"weighted_sales":16.7},{"pct":-7.6,"beta":-0.0788,"term":"attr:Mohawk","label":"Mohawk","sales_12m":73,"weighted_sales":15.8}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":1.3,"date":"2020-06-03","block":10195094,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":82,"adjusted_eth":31.8605},{"eth":2.1,"date":"2020-09-23","block":10916238,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":170,"adjusted_eth":29.6833},{"eth":3,"date":"2020-09-26","block":10936536,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":2,"adjusted_eth":30.39},{"eth":8.3,"date":"2021-02-16","block":11867907,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":105,"adjusted_eth":30.0282},{"eth":18.5,"date":"2021-03-09","block":12001349,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":18,"adjusted_eth":34.0736},{"eth":21.98,"date":"2021-03-14","block":12034759,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":105,"adjusted_eth":31.8082},{"eth":23,"date":"2021-04-13","block":12234206,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":70,"adjusted_eth":34.517},{"eth":19.5,"date":"2021-07-10","block":12802430,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":128,"adjusted_eth":31.388},{"eth":24,"date":"2021-07-30","block":12929843,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":41,"adjusted_eth":28.1389},{"eth":38.77,"date":"2025-02-21","block":21891345,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":130,"adjusted_eth":33.2737}],"comparables":[{"eth":31.2,"date":"2026-09-21","punk":9984,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.5861,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.65,"date":"2026-09-17","punk":5866,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.3491,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.501,"date":"2026-09-05","punk":5866,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.8811,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34.869,"date":"2026-07-12","punk":2957,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.6655,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":37.5,"date":"2026-07-12","punk":8340,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.1302,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.25,"date":"2026-07-03","punk":2957,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":31.1488,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.8,"date":"2026-04-27","punk":9984,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.3015,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.89,"date":"2026-04-22","punk":5866,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.4005,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.0836,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[],"summary":["Estimate 29.8 ETH (beta), 1σ range 27.2 to 32.6 ETH, 2σ range 24.9 to 35.7 ETH, confidence High, as of 05:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 05:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, Mole -7%, Goat -7%, Mohawk -8%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/4994","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}