{"punk":4998,"name":"CryptoPunk #4998","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/4998","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/4998.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Frown","Chinstrap","Messy Hair","Cigarette"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":32.1095,"usd":73005,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.3724,"high_eth":35.1017,"low_usd":66782,"high_usd":79808},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.8687,"high_eth":38.3727,"low_usd":61089,"high_usd":87245},"sigma_log":0.0891,"multiple_of_floor":1.0566,"n1_eth":32.3769,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T21:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":31.6869,"usd":72044,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.9858,"high_eth":34.6397,"low_usd":65903,"high_usd":78758},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.515,"high_eth":37.8676,"low_usd":60285,"high_usd":86097},"sigma_log":0.0891,"multiple_of_floor":1.0566,"n1_eth":31.9507,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T21:04:35.000Z","block":26351205,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":56,"stale":false,"label":"as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T21:04:35.000Z","block":26351205,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":56,"stale":false,"label":"as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 4+","terms":[{"pct":4.7,"beta":0.0457,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-5.3,"beta":-0.054,"term":"attr:Chinstrap","label":"Chinstrap","sales_12m":42,"weighted_sales":19.4}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 4+","seen":{"n":276,"cover1":0.736,"cover2":0.931,"bias_pct":1,"within10":0.71,"within25":0.928,"MdALE_pct":5.6},"thin":false,"sigma":0.089,"selection":{"n":293,"cover1":0.683,"cover2":0.932,"bias_pct":1.1,"within10":0.662,"within25":0.949,"MdALE_pct":6.9}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.3,"date":"2019-07-13","block":8143774,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":90,"adjusted_eth":26.4618},{"eth":4.69,"date":"2021-01-08","block":11610715,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":74,"adjusted_eth":30.5768},{"eth":70,"date":"2022-04-28","block":14674761,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":96,"adjusted_eth":33.8925}],"comparables":[{"eth":40,"date":"2026-10-12","punk":3758,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":38.0946,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":37.69,"date":"2026-10-07","punk":9706,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.3668,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.16,"date":"2026-09-09","punk":2167,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.2353,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.33,"date":"2026-09-05","punk":2167,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.33,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":42.069,"date":"2026-06-12","punk":9706,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":38.7009,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":35,"date":"2026-05-25","punk":2648,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.5874,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":40.25,"date":"2026-05-23","punk":6652,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":36.0974,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.25,"date":"2026-04-22","punk":2167,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.3358,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.0083,"type_multiple":{"sales":778,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0654,"median_multiple":1.0654},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Frown","sales_12m":41},{"attribute":"Messy Hair","sales_12m":48},{"attribute":"Cigarette","sales_12m":110}],"summary":["Estimate 32.1 ETH (beta), 1σ range 29.4 to 35.1 ETH, 2σ range 26.9 to 38.4 ETH, confidence Medium, as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 21:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Chinstrap -5%.","In the backtest, Male 4+ sales landed within ±6.9% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.6% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/4998","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}