{"punk":5013,"name":"CryptoPunk #5013","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/5013","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/5013.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Normal Beard Black","Messy Hair","Pipe"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":38.151,"usd":86741,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":34.0202,"high_eth":42.7834,"low_usd":77349,"high_usd":97274},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.3366,"high_eth":47.9783,"low_usd":68974,"high_usd":109085},"sigma_log":0.1146,"multiple_of_floor":1.2554,"n1_eth":32.3769,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":37.6488,"usd":85599,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":33.5724,"high_eth":42.2203,"low_usd":76331,"high_usd":95993},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.9373,"high_eth":47.3468,"low_usd":68066,"high_usd":107649},"sigma_log":0.1146,"multiple_of_floor":1.2554,"n1_eth":31.9507,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":51,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":51,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":{"ask_eth":99,"ask_usd":220801,"z":8.32,"z_text":"8.3σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2026-02-05T06:56:35.000Z","days_listed":273},"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.7,"beta":0.0457,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":12.6,"beta":0.1184,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":67}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":25,"date":"2021-02-23","block":11915079,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":56,"adjusted_eth":32.0406},{"eth":34.99,"date":"2021-02-24","block":11917366,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":137,"adjusted_eth":47.6977}],"comparables":[{"eth":46.25,"date":"2026-02-23","punk":9762,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":46.4514,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":58.88,"date":"2025-07-29","punk":9779,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.3298,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":58.99,"date":"2025-07-26","punk":9762,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.0388,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":50,"date":"2025-04-21","punk":9779,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.7024,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":39.8,"date":"2025-02-19","punk":7428,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.6415,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":39,"date":"2024-11-07","punk":9570,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":44.9677,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.99,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":9585,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.562,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":38,"date":"2026-10-30","punk":5579,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":39.9951,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.1641,"type_multiple":{"sales":778,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0654,"median_multiple":1.0654},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Normal Beard Black","sales_12m":21},{"attribute":"Messy Hair","sales_12m":48},{"attribute":"Pipe","sales_12m":32}],"summary":["Estimate 38.2 ETH (beta), 1σ range 34.0 to 42.8 ETH, 2σ range 30.3 to 48.0 ETH, confidence Low, as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 23:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/5013","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}