{"punk":5051,"name":"CryptoPunk #5051","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/5051","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/5051.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Front Beard","Earring","Peak Spike","3D Glasses"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":55.9184,"usd":135495,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":41.9584,"high_eth":74.5231,"low_usd":101669,"high_usd":180576},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":31.4835,"high_eth":99.3178,"low_usd":76287,"high_usd":240655},"sigma_log":0.2872,"multiple_of_floor":1.84,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T10:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":55.9184,"usd":135495,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":41.9584,"high_eth":74.5231,"low_usd":101669,"high_usd":180576},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":31.4835,"high_eth":99.3178,"low_usd":76287,"high_usd":240655},"sigma_log":0.2872,"multiple_of_floor":1.84,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T10:04:35.000Z","block":26355095,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":3,"stale":false,"label":"as of 10:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T10:04:35.000Z","block":26355095,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":3,"stale":false,"label":"as of 10:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":745,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 4+","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":10.1,"beta":0.0958,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":88.6},{"pct":-7.3,"beta":-0.0757,"term":"attr:Front Beard","label":"Front Beard","sales_12m":38,"weighted_sales":11.3},{"pct":-2.4,"beta":-0.0241,"term":"attr:Earring","label":"Earring","sales_12m":303,"weighted_sales":70.6},{"pct":-5.8,"beta":-0.0603,"term":"attr:Peak Spike","label":"Peak Spike","sales_12m":41,"weighted_sales":14.6},{"pct":75.9,"beta":0.565,"term":"attr:3D Glasses","label":"3D Glasses","sales_12m":11,"weighted_sales":3.6}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 4+","seen":{"n":276,"cover1":0.736,"cover2":0.931,"bias_pct":1,"within10":0.71,"within25":0.928,"MdALE_pct":5.6},"thin":false,"sigma":0.089,"selection":{"n":293,"cover1":0.683,"cover2":0.932,"bias_pct":1.1,"within10":0.662,"within25":0.949,"MdALE_pct":6.9}},"own_sales":[{"eth":57,"date":"2021-08-03","block":12950555,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":106,"adjusted_eth":52.4918},{"eth":69.69,"date":"2021-08-04","block":12959833,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":156,"adjusted_eth":61.4056},{"eth":79.99,"date":"2022-05-15","block":14782096,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":240,"adjusted_eth":45.1839},{"eth":80,"date":"2022-06-12","block":14952350,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":36,"adjusted_eth":50.398},{"eth":130,"date":"2022-08-03","block":15272153,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":12,"adjusted_eth":50.9439},{"eth":159,"date":"2022-08-06","block":15291691,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":19,"adjusted_eth":64.8592},{"eth":111.13,"date":"2022-11-12","block":15956182,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":51,"adjusted_eth":51.9975},{"eth":80,"date":"2023-12-04","block":18713978,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":107,"adjusted_eth":42.4738},{"eth":64,"date":"2024-04-06","block":19598817,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":101,"adjusted_eth":46.3086},{"eth":39.5,"date":"2024-10-23","block":21030101,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":503,"adjusted_eth":45.2983},{"eth":71.8,"date":"2025-06-10","block":22671105,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":355,"adjusted_eth":49.591}],"comparables":[{"eth":30,"date":"2026-10-29","punk":9018,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.4444,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.5,"date":"2026-10-25","punk":9404,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":29.2116,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.35,"date":"2026-10-23","punk":8427,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.7725,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32,"date":"2026-10-16","punk":8871,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.3703,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":39.88,"date":"2026-09-24","punk":4714,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.9737,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34,"date":"2026-09-23","punk":8871,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.39,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.33,"date":"2026-09-11","punk":8557,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.9812,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":36.95,"date":"2026-08-21","punk":9018,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.6043,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.5462,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[],"summary":["Estimate 55.9 ETH (beta), 1σ range 42.0 to 74.5 ETH, 2σ range 31.5 to 99.3 ETH, confidence Low, as of 10:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 10:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, Front Beard -7%, Earring -2%, Peak Spike -6%, 3D Glasses +76%.","In the backtest, Male 4+ sales landed within ±6.9% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.6% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/5051","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}