{"punk":5074,"name":"CryptoPunk #5074","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/5074","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/5074.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Hot Lipstick","Cap","Cigarette","Nerd Glasses"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":29.995,"usd":72680,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.3852,"high_eth":31.696,"low_usd":68780,"high_usd":76802},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.8619,"high_eth":33.4935,"low_usd":65089,"high_usd":81157},"sigma_log":0.0552,"multiple_of_floor":0.987,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Female 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T12:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":29.995,"usd":72680,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.3852,"high_eth":31.696,"low_usd":68780,"high_usd":76802},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.8619,"high_eth":33.4935,"low_usd":65089,"high_usd":81157},"sigma_log":0.0552,"multiple_of_floor":0.987,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Female 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T12:04:23.000Z","block":26355693,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":47,"stale":false,"label":"as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T12:04:23.000Z","block":26355693,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":47,"stale":false,"label":"as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.4,"public_asks":405,"punk":6263}},"listing":{"ask_eth":65,"ask_usd":145325,"z":14.01,"z_text":"14.0σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2025-09-12T18:03:47.000Z","days_listed":419},"argument":{"cell":"Female 4+","terms":[{"pct":-2.2,"beta":-0.0225,"term":"attr:Cigarette","label":"Cigarette","sales_12m":110,"weighted_sales":14.2}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 4+","seen":{"n":135,"cover1":0.6,"cover2":0.815,"bias_pct":-0.9,"within10":0.763,"within25":0.933,"MdALE_pct":4.5},"thin":false,"sigma":0.054,"selection":{"n":177,"cover1":0.712,"cover2":0.921,"bias_pct":-0.5,"within10":0.819,"within25":0.966,"MdALE_pct":3.4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":9.5,"date":"2021-02-15","block":11859571,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":22,"adjusted_eth":35.6426},{"eth":115,"date":"2021-08-27","block":13105601,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":49,"adjusted_eth":37.9875}],"comparables":[{"eth":27.09,"date":"2026-10-30","punk":2278,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.8926,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29,"date":"2026-10-20","punk":2994,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":28.1839,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.66,"date":"2026-10-01","punk":1165,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.0072,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.8,"date":"2026-09-29","punk":1165,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.7639,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":38.69,"date":"2026-09-23","punk":9310,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.582,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.42,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":4065,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.3806,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.2,"date":"2026-09-21","punk":9310,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.6057,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.99,"date":"2026-05-26","punk":1165,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.39,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.0225,"type_multiple":{"sales":440,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0095,"median_multiple":1.0095},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Hot Lipstick","sales_12m":88},{"attribute":"Cap","sales_12m":38},{"attribute":"Nerd Glasses","sales_12m":64}],"summary":["Estimate 30.0 ETH (beta), 1σ range 28.4 to 31.7 ETH, 2σ range 26.9 to 33.5 ETH, confidence Medium, as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 12:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (440 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Cigarette -2%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 4+ sales landed within ±3.4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.5% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/5074","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}