{"punk":5100,"name":"CryptoPunk #5100","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/5100","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/5100.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Earring","Mohawk Thin","Clown Nose"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":27.6519,"usd":62870,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":24.7135,"high_eth":30.9396,"low_usd":56189,"high_usd":70345},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":22.0874,"high_eth":34.6184,"low_usd":50219,"high_usd":78709},"sigma_log":0.1123,"multiple_of_floor":0.9099,"n1_eth":32.3769,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":27.2879,"usd":62043,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":24.3882,"high_eth":30.5324,"low_usd":55450,"high_usd":69419},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":21.7967,"high_eth":34.1627,"low_usd":49558,"high_usd":77673},"sigma_log":0.1123,"multiple_of_floor":0.9099,"n1_eth":31.9507,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","block":26351503,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":38,"stale":false,"label":"as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","block":26351503,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":38,"stale":false,"label":"as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.7,"beta":0.0457,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-2.4,"beta":-0.0241,"term":"attr:Earring","label":"Earring","sales_12m":306,"weighted_sales":71.1},{"pct":-10.7,"beta":-0.1137,"term":"attr:Mohawk Thin","label":"Mohawk Thin","sales_12m":51,"weighted_sales":11.1},{"pct":-6.4,"beta":-0.0656,"term":"attr:Clown Nose","label":"Clown Nose","sales_12m":25,"weighted_sales":6.2}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[],"comparables":[{"eth":36,"date":"2026-09-24","punk":192,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.0463,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":42.5,"date":"2024-12-23","punk":192,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.9522,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":38,"date":"2024-12-23","punk":192,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.5691,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":42,"date":"2024-11-16","punk":192,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.5888,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":32.5,"date":"2026-09-04","punk":8375,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.7071,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.9,"date":"2026-07-04","punk":5459,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.3397,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.99,"date":"2026-04-21","punk":5459,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.1214,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30,"date":"2026-03-28","punk":9024,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.2939,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.1577,"type_multiple":{"sales":778,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0654,"median_multiple":1.0654},"no_clear_premium":[],"summary":["Estimate 27.7 ETH (beta), 1σ range 24.7 to 30.9 ETH, 2σ range 22.1 to 34.6 ETH, confidence Low, as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 22:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Earring -2%, Mohawk Thin -11%, Clown Nose -6%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/5100","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}