{"punk":5101,"name":"CryptoPunk #5101","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/5101","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/5101.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Frown","Front Beard Dark","Earring","Mohawk Thin","Small Shades"],"attribute_count":5,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":27.3784,"usd":66340,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":24.2248,"high_eth":30.9424,"low_usd":58699,"high_usd":74976},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":21.4345,"high_eth":34.9705,"low_usd":51938,"high_usd":84736},"sigma_log":0.1224,"multiple_of_floor":0.9009,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T09:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":27.3784,"usd":66340,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":24.2248,"high_eth":30.9424,"low_usd":58699,"high_usd":74976},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":21.4345,"high_eth":34.9705,"low_usd":51938,"high_usd":84736},"sigma_log":0.1224,"multiple_of_floor":0.9009,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T09:04:35.000Z","block":26354795,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":46,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T09:04:35.000Z","block":26354795,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":46,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":745,"punk":3425}},"listing":{"ask_eth":140,"ask_usd":313008,"z":13.33,"z_text":"13.3σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2026-09-15T09:54:35.000Z","days_listed":51},"argument":{"cell":"Male 4+","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-7.3,"beta":-0.0756,"term":"attr:Front Beard Dark","label":"Front Beard Dark","sales_12m":35,"weighted_sales":13.3},{"pct":-2.4,"beta":-0.0241,"term":"attr:Earring","label":"Earring","sales_12m":303,"weighted_sales":70.6},{"pct":-10.8,"beta":-0.1137,"term":"attr:Mohawk Thin","label":"Mohawk Thin","sales_12m":51,"weighted_sales":11}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 4+","seen":{"n":276,"cover1":0.736,"cover2":0.931,"bias_pct":1,"within10":0.71,"within25":0.928,"MdALE_pct":5.6},"thin":false,"sigma":0.089,"selection":{"n":293,"cover1":0.683,"cover2":0.932,"bias_pct":1.1,"within10":0.662,"within25":0.949,"MdALE_pct":6.9}},"own_sales":[{"eth":4.89,"date":"2020-09-15","block":10863311,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":115,"adjusted_eth":76.9985},{"eth":8,"date":"2020-09-27","block":10943857,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":271,"adjusted_eth":74.3486},{"eth":44,"date":"2021-03-08","block":11995190,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":198,"adjusted_eth":68.5723},{"eth":65,"date":"2021-07-29","block":12923169,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":292,"adjusted_eth":86.8668},{"eth":171,"date":"2021-08-28","block":13115231,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":40,"adjusted_eth":37.7401},{"eth":74,"date":"2023-02-21","block":16675394,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":113,"adjusted_eth":35.1494}],"comparables":[{"eth":27.1,"date":"2026-01-02","punk":2947,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.4237,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":42.15,"date":"2025-04-21","punk":2947,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.4985,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":42,"date":"2025-04-16","punk":2947,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.3972,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":32,"date":"2026-10-16","punk":8871,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.3703,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.4,"date":"2026-10-15","punk":5098,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.8114,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.31,"date":"2026-10-08","punk":5098,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.0538,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":36,"date":"2026-09-24","punk":192,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.4737,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":39.9,"date":"2026-09-24","punk":7368,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.9917,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.168,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Frown","sales_12m":40},{"attribute":"Small Shades","sales_12m":44}],"summary":["Estimate 27.4 ETH (beta), 1σ range 24.2 to 30.9 ETH, 2σ range 21.4 to 35.0 ETH, confidence Medium, as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 09:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Front Beard Dark -7%, Earring -2%, Mohawk Thin -11%.","In the backtest, Male 4+ sales landed within ±6.9% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.6% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/5101","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}