{"punk":5151,"name":"CryptoPunk #5151","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/5151","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/5151.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Mole","Crazy Hair"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":33.5538,"usd":76289,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":30.9132,"high_eth":36.4201,"low_usd":70285,"high_usd":82806},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.4804,"high_eth":39.5311,"low_usd":64754,"high_usd":89879},"sigma_log":0.082,"multiple_of_floor":1.1041,"n1_eth":32.3769,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":33.1122,"usd":75285,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":30.5063,"high_eth":35.9407,"low_usd":69360,"high_usd":81716},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.1055,"high_eth":39.0108,"low_usd":63901,"high_usd":88696},"sigma_log":0.082,"multiple_of_floor":1.1041,"n1_eth":31.9507,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":45,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":45,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":{"ask_eth":45,"ask_usd":100364,"z":3.58,"z_text":"3.6σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2026-09-24T01:23:11.000Z","days_listed":42},"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.7,"beta":0.0457,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":10,"beta":0.0957,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":89.3},{"pct":-3.5,"beta":-0.0359,"term":"count2","label":"2 attributes (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":102.4},{"pct":-6.7,"beta":-0.0698,"term":"attr:Mole","label":"Mole","sales_12m":89,"weighted_sales":22.7}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":37.95,"date":"2021-08-01","block":12937531,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":253,"adjusted_eth":34.7518},{"eth":134,"date":"2021-10-01","block":13336417,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":12,"adjusted_eth":32.2784},{"eth":74,"date":"2022-01-15","block":14010300,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":261,"adjusted_eth":35.5082},{"eth":69,"date":"2022-03-03","block":14311707,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":44,"adjusted_eth":30.0335},{"eth":73.94,"date":"2022-03-11","block":14368410,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":51,"adjusted_eth":29.9657},{"eth":74,"date":"2022-03-13","block":14375192,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":68,"adjusted_eth":31.8447},{"eth":70,"date":"2022-03-16","block":14400181,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":1,"adjusted_eth":33.7237},{"eth":70,"date":"2022-11-21","block":16018037,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":7,"adjusted_eth":33.8651},{"eth":73.5,"date":"2022-11-21","block":16019280,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":132,"adjusted_eth":35.5584},{"eth":65,"date":"2023-06-17","block":17500187,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":217,"adjusted_eth":38.23},{"eth":38.936,"date":"2026-06-11","block":25291054,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":502,"adjusted_eth":35.7092},{"eth":38.5,"date":"2026-08-21","block":25804583,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":531,"adjusted_eth":35.5814},{"eth":34,"date":"2026-09-01","block":25884797,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":830,"adjusted_eth":31.8943}],"comparables":[{"eth":44,"date":"2026-01-24","punk":7210,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":48.4242,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":89,"date":"2025-03-23","punk":7060,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":66.7444,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":59,"date":"2025-01-24","punk":7060,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":43.2724,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":42.93,"date":"2025-01-03","punk":7210,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.5723,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":42.98,"date":"2024-12-27","punk":7210,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.8465,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":37.99,"date":"2024-11-15","punk":1184,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.99,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34,"date":"2024-11-15","punk":1184,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":26.8402,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":27.62,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":3425,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":27.2385,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.0357,"type_multiple":{"sales":778,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0654,"median_multiple":1.0654},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Crazy Hair","sales_12m":59}],"summary":["Estimate 33.6 ETH (beta), 1σ range 30.9 to 36.4 ETH, 2σ range 28.5 to 39.5 ETH, confidence High, as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 23:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -4%, Mole -7%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/5151","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}