{"punk":5156,"name":"CryptoPunk #5156","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/5156","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/5156.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Knitted Cap","Pipe","Nerd Glasses"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":38.1527,"usd":92447,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":34.0247,"high_eth":42.7816,"low_usd":82445,"high_usd":103663},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.3434,"high_eth":47.972,"low_usd":73525,"high_usd":116240},"sigma_log":0.1145,"multiple_of_floor":1.2554,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T04:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":38.1527,"usd":92447,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":34.0247,"high_eth":42.7816,"low_usd":82445,"high_usd":103663},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.3434,"high_eth":47.972,"low_usd":73525,"high_usd":116240},"sigma_log":0.1145,"multiple_of_floor":1.2554,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T04:04:23.000Z","block":26353297,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":5,"stale":false,"label":"as of 04:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T04:04:23.000Z","block":26353297,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":5,"stale":false,"label":"as of 04:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":12.6,"beta":0.1184,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":66.5}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.25,"date":"2017-09-27","block":4315847,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":43,"adjusted_eth":54.2679},{"eth":23.69,"date":"2021-02-19","block":11888996,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":72,"adjusted_eth":56.9122}],"comparables":[{"eth":161.5,"date":"2026-09-04","punk":1839,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":159.6612,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":42,"date":"2026-05-12","punk":4473,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":43.1501,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":59.75,"date":"2025-08-14","punk":4473,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.8182,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":62.5,"date":"2025-08-12","punk":4473,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.1769,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":199.99,"date":"2025-07-25","punk":7674,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":116.9013,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":50,"date":"2025-07-15","punk":2745,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":37.997,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":42.69,"date":"2025-03-18","punk":3865,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.7851,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":45,"date":"2025-01-25","punk":3865,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.4446,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.1639,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Knitted Cap","sales_12m":49},{"attribute":"Pipe","sales_12m":32},{"attribute":"Nerd Glasses","sales_12m":64}],"summary":["Estimate 38.2 ETH (beta), 1σ range 34.0 to 42.8 ETH, 2σ range 30.3 to 48.0 ETH, confidence High, as of 04:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 04:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/5156","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}