{"punk":5176,"name":"CryptoPunk #5176","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/5176","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/5176.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Frown","Earring","Mohawk","Big Shades"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":30.577,"usd":74091,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":27.8469,"high_eth":33.5748,"low_usd":67475,"high_usd":81354},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":25.3606,"high_eth":36.8665,"low_usd":61451,"high_usd":89331},"sigma_log":0.0935,"multiple_of_floor":1.0062,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T07:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.577,"usd":74091,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":27.8469,"high_eth":33.5748,"low_usd":67475,"high_usd":81354},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":25.3606,"high_eth":36.8665,"low_usd":61451,"high_usd":89331},"sigma_log":0.0935,"multiple_of_floor":1.0062,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T07:04:35.000Z","block":26354196,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":44,"stale":false,"label":"as of 07:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T07:04:35.000Z","block":26354196,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":44,"stale":false,"label":"as of 07:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 4+","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-2.4,"beta":-0.0241,"term":"attr:Earring","label":"Earring","sales_12m":303,"weighted_sales":70.6},{"pct":-7.6,"beta":-0.0788,"term":"attr:Mohawk","label":"Mohawk","sales_12m":73,"weighted_sales":15.8}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 4+","seen":{"n":276,"cover1":0.736,"cover2":0.931,"bias_pct":1,"within10":0.71,"within25":0.928,"MdALE_pct":5.6},"thin":false,"sigma":0.089,"selection":{"n":293,"cover1":0.683,"cover2":0.932,"bias_pct":1.1,"within10":0.662,"within25":0.949,"MdALE_pct":6.9}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.45,"date":"2019-05-14","block":7757792,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":54,"adjusted_eth":31.0807},{"eth":20.49,"date":"2021-03-31","block":12146670,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":83,"adjusted_eth":39.163},{"eth":23,"date":"2021-04-27","block":12319867,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":221,"adjusted_eth":31.8003},{"eth":65,"date":"2021-08-23","block":13078726,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":249,"adjusted_eth":29.1866}],"comparables":[{"eth":30.6,"date":"2026-07-19","punk":8992,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.0695,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":30,"date":"2026-04-10","punk":9110,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.5723,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":42.5,"date":"2025-10-18","punk":8992,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.2547,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":47,"date":"2025-10-01","punk":8992,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.2036,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":42.25,"date":"2025-03-24","punk":6724,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.7172,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":38.98,"date":"2024-12-11","punk":4050,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.9899,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":40,"date":"2024-12-04","punk":4050,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":27.3599,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":44,"date":"2024-12-02","punk":6724,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.0959,"shared_attributes":3}],"premium_log":-0.0575,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Frown","sales_12m":40},{"attribute":"Big Shades","sales_12m":81}],"summary":["Estimate 30.6 ETH (beta), 1σ range 27.8 to 33.6 ETH, 2σ range 25.4 to 36.9 ETH, confidence Medium, as of 07:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 07:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Earring -2%, Mohawk -8%.","In the backtest, Male 4+ sales landed within ±6.9% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.6% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/5176","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}