{"punk":5201,"name":"CryptoPunk #5201","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/5201","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/5201.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Frumpy Hair","Pipe","Eye Mask"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":31.4118,"usd":71419,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.9557,"high_eth":34.0763,"low_usd":65835,"high_usd":77477},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.6916,"high_eth":36.9669,"low_usd":60687,"high_usd":84049},"sigma_log":0.0814,"multiple_of_floor":1.0336,"n1_eth":32.3769,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":30.9984,"usd":70479,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.5746,"high_eth":33.6278,"low_usd":64968,"high_usd":76457},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.3403,"high_eth":36.4803,"low_usd":59888,"high_usd":82943},"sigma_log":0.0814,"multiple_of_floor":1.0336,"n1_eth":31.9507,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":47,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":47,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.7,"beta":0.0457,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-7.3,"beta":-0.076,"term":"attr:Frumpy Hair","label":"Frumpy Hair","sales_12m":60,"weighted_sales":20}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.49,"date":"2019-05-06","block":7704850,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":50,"adjusted_eth":33.398},{"eth":9.55,"date":"2021-02-15","block":11862956,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":147,"adjusted_eth":35.3586},{"eth":72.99,"date":"2021-08-23","block":13081841,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":33,"adjusted_eth":32.3429},{"eth":98,"date":"2021-09-16","block":13233623,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":93,"adjusted_eth":28.8139},{"eth":135,"date":"2021-09-28","block":13315867,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":7,"adjusted_eth":37.6619}],"comparables":[{"eth":32.33,"date":"2026-09-11","punk":8557,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.5471,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":37.49,"date":"2026-08-25","punk":8480,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.6586,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":37.5,"date":"2026-07-12","punk":7361,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.6678,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":42,"date":"2025-10-16","punk":8480,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.6333,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":48.0676,"date":"2025-10-09","punk":7771,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.7533,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":49.8227,"date":"2025-10-06","punk":7771,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.6814,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":52.99,"date":"2025-07-24","punk":8480,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.7898,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":49.4,"date":"2025-05-19","punk":7833,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.5281,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.0303,"type_multiple":{"sales":778,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0654,"median_multiple":1.0654},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Pipe","sales_12m":32},{"attribute":"Eye Mask","sales_12m":56}],"summary":["Estimate 31.4 ETH (beta), 1σ range 29.0 to 34.1 ETH, 2σ range 26.7 to 37.0 ETH, confidence High, as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 23:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Frumpy Hair -7%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/5201","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}