{"punk":5241,"name":"CryptoPunk #5241","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/5241","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/5241.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Silver Chain","Shadow Beard","Do-rag","Horned Rim Glasses"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":36.0569,"usd":87369,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":32.4975,"high_eth":40.0061,"low_usd":78744,"high_usd":96938},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.2894,"high_eth":44.388,"low_usd":70971,"high_usd":107556},"sigma_log":0.1039,"multiple_of_floor":1.1865,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T04:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":36.0569,"usd":87369,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":32.4975,"high_eth":40.0061,"low_usd":78744,"high_usd":96938},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.2894,"high_eth":44.388,"low_usd":70971,"high_usd":107556},"sigma_log":0.1039,"multiple_of_floor":1.1865,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T04:04:23.000Z","block":26353297,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":52,"stale":false,"label":"as of 04:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T04:04:23.000Z","block":26353297,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":52,"stale":false,"label":"as of 04:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":{"ask_eth":69,"ask_usd":154268,"z":6.25,"z_text":"6.2σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2025-11-04T05:14:11.000Z","days_listed":366},"argument":{"cell":"Male 4+","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":12.6,"beta":0.1184,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":66.5},{"pct":-5.5,"beta":-0.0565,"term":"attr:Do-rag","label":"Do-rag","sales_12m":51,"weighted_sales":17.8}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 4+","seen":{"n":276,"cover1":0.736,"cover2":0.931,"bias_pct":1,"within10":0.71,"within25":0.928,"MdALE_pct":5.6},"thin":false,"sigma":0.089,"selection":{"n":293,"cover1":0.683,"cover2":0.932,"bias_pct":1.1,"within10":0.662,"within25":0.949,"MdALE_pct":6.9}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.25,"date":"2019-11-23","block":8984886,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":75,"adjusted_eth":21.1042},{"eth":0.26,"date":"2019-11-23","block":8985197,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":60,"adjusted_eth":21.9483},{"eth":1.6,"date":"2020-09-12","block":10846439,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":58,"adjusted_eth":35.2348},{"eth":45,"date":"2021-08-04","block":12959451,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":93,"adjusted_eth":39.6506},{"eth":95,"date":"2022-02-15","block":14213359,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":438,"adjusted_eth":40.6913},{"eth":69,"date":"2022-04-17","block":14604424,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":91,"adjusted_eth":32.9237},{"eth":84.75,"date":"2022-07-09","block":15109274,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":126,"adjusted_eth":34.5017},{"eth":88,"date":"2022-07-23","block":15198092,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":121,"adjusted_eth":33.8736},{"eth":0,"date":"2024-08-05","block":20465213,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":71,"adjusted_eth":null}],"comparables":[{"eth":32.5,"date":"2026-09-18","punk":2762,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.2663,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":39.69,"date":"2026-08-08","punk":9950,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":37.459,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.99,"date":"2026-05-08","punk":2762,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.3408,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":27.701,"date":"2026-04-20","punk":2762,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.3782,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.75,"date":"2026-02-06","punk":9119,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.349,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":40,"date":"2026-01-08","punk":6056,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":41.9317,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32,"date":"2026-01-05","punk":1117,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.0776,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":42,"date":"2025-10-22","punk":6138,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.7277,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.1074,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Silver Chain","sales_12m":20},{"attribute":"Shadow Beard","sales_12m":55},{"attribute":"Horned Rim Glasses","sales_12m":50}],"summary":["Estimate 36.1 ETH (beta), 1σ range 32.5 to 40.0 ETH, 2σ range 29.3 to 44.4 ETH, confidence Low, as of 04:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 04:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, Do-rag -6%.","In the backtest, Male 4+ sales landed within ±6.9% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.6% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/5241","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}