{"punk":5254,"name":"CryptoPunk #5254","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/5254","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/5254.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Stringy Hair","Cigarette","Clown Eyes Blue"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":29.2352,"usd":70839,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":27.6069,"high_eth":30.9595,"low_usd":66894,"high_usd":75017},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.0693,"high_eth":32.7855,"low_usd":63168,"high_usd":79442},"sigma_log":0.0573,"multiple_of_floor":0.962,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"High","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T10:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":29.2352,"usd":70839,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":27.6069,"high_eth":30.9595,"low_usd":66894,"high_usd":75017},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.0693,"high_eth":32.7855,"low_usd":63168,"high_usd":79442},"sigma_log":0.0573,"multiple_of_floor":0.962,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"High","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T10:04:35.000Z","block":26355095,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":34,"stale":false,"label":"as of 10:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T10:04:35.000Z","block":26355095,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":34,"stale":false,"label":"as of 10:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.4,"public_asks":405,"punk":6263}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Female 2-3","terms":[{"pct":-2.5,"beta":-0.0257,"term":"attr:Stringy Hair","label":"Stringy Hair","sales_12m":96,"weighted_sales":12.8},{"pct":-2.2,"beta":-0.0225,"term":"attr:Cigarette","label":"Cigarette","sales_12m":110,"weighted_sales":14.2}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 2-3","seen":{"n":839,"cover1":0.634,"cover2":0.871,"bias_pct":-0.6,"within10":0.802,"within25":0.952,"MdALE_pct":4.1},"thin":false,"sigma":0.052,"selection":{"n":1056,"cover1":0.688,"cover2":0.916,"bias_pct":-1.5,"within10":0.841,"within25":0.968,"MdALE_pct":4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.25,"date":"2019-09-15","block":8555463,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":24,"adjusted_eth":25.325},{"eth":0.4,"date":"2019-12-08","block":9074286,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":30,"adjusted_eth":32.8541},{"eth":21.25,"date":"2021-03-21","block":12082772,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":207,"adjusted_eth":30.7664},{"eth":14.99,"date":"2021-04-07","block":12192109,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":246,"adjusted_eth":29.8719},{"eth":23,"date":"2021-05-03","block":12362171,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":37,"adjusted_eth":34.2297},{"eth":0,"date":"2021-07-30","block":12923962,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":220,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":40.5,"date":"2021-08-17","block":13040066,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":81,"adjusted_eth":29.3046},{"eth":43.98,"date":"2021-08-18","block":13052210,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":58,"adjusted_eth":30.3762},{"eth":52,"date":"2021-12-23","block":13863953,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":77,"adjusted_eth":28.7324},{"eth":63.95,"date":"2021-12-24","block":13869089,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":11,"adjusted_eth":29.8991},{"eth":71,"date":"2022-01-25","block":14075568,"source":"native-bid","excluded":"twin-of-nominal-24h","log_index":30,"adjusted_eth":27.6804},{"eth":0,"date":"2022-01-25","block":14075581,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":206,"adjusted_eth":null}],"comparables":[{"eth":29.69,"date":"2026-09-21","punk":7366,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.1058,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.42,"date":"2026-09-05","punk":7366,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":28.7991,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.49,"date":"2026-05-31","punk":3646,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.1106,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.01,"date":"2026-05-15","punk":5032,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.4575,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.01,"date":"2026-05-14","punk":5032,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.4864,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.99,"date":"2026-04-22","punk":7366,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.5058,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":26.5,"date":"2026-04-01","punk":7366,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.5074,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.25,"date":"2026-01-05","punk":1620,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.2349,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.0482,"type_multiple":{"sales":440,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0095,"median_multiple":1.0095},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Clown Eyes Blue","sales_12m":65}],"summary":["Estimate 29.2 ETH (beta), 1σ range 27.6 to 31.0 ETH, 2σ range 26.1 to 32.8 ETH, confidence High, as of 10:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 10:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (440 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Stringy Hair -3%, Cigarette -2%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 2-3 sales landed within ±4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.1% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/5254","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}