{"punk":5276,"name":"CryptoPunk #5276","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/5276","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/5276.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Frown","Normal Beard","Frumpy Hair","VR"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":43.317,"usd":104961,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":36.5275,"high_eth":51.3685,"low_usd":88509,"high_usd":124470},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.8022,"high_eth":60.9166,"low_usd":74636,"high_usd":147606},"sigma_log":0.1705,"multiple_of_floor":1.4254,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T02:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":43.317,"usd":104961,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":36.5275,"high_eth":51.3685,"low_usd":88509,"high_usd":124470},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.8022,"high_eth":60.9166,"low_usd":74636,"high_usd":147606},"sigma_log":0.1705,"multiple_of_floor":1.4254,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T02:04:23.000Z","block":26352699,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":59,"stale":false,"label":"as of 02:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T02:04:23.000Z","block":26352699,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":59,"stale":false,"label":"as of 02:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":{"ask_eth":150,"ask_usd":335366,"z":7.28,"z_text":"7.3σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2023-03-15T15:51:11.000Z","days_listed":1331},"argument":{"cell":"Male 4+","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":12.6,"beta":0.1184,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":66.5},{"pct":-7.3,"beta":-0.076,"term":"attr:Frumpy Hair","label":"Frumpy Hair","sales_12m":59,"weighted_sales":19.8},{"pct":22.5,"beta":0.2029,"term":"attr:VR","label":"VR","sales_12m":24,"weighted_sales":3.6}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 4+","seen":{"n":276,"cover1":0.736,"cover2":0.931,"bias_pct":1,"within10":0.71,"within25":0.928,"MdALE_pct":5.6},"thin":false,"sigma":0.089,"selection":{"n":293,"cover1":0.683,"cover2":0.932,"bias_pct":1.1,"within10":0.662,"within25":0.949,"MdALE_pct":6.9}},"own_sales":[{"eth":1,"date":"2020-05-18","block":10086867,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":103,"adjusted_eth":37.9875},{"eth":2,"date":"2020-05-24","block":10130070,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":111,"adjusted_eth":55.7615}],"comparables":[{"eth":29,"date":"2026-10-20","punk":7711,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":28.1839,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.4,"date":"2026-10-15","punk":5098,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.8114,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.31,"date":"2026-10-08","punk":5098,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.0538,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.94,"date":"2026-10-05","punk":4341,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.2746,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33,"date":"2026-09-28","punk":4341,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.7853,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.374,"date":"2026-09-25","punk":4341,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.3009,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.25,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":5098,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.1584,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.1,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":4341,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.0808,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.2908,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Frown","sales_12m":40},{"attribute":"Normal Beard","sales_12m":39}],"summary":["Estimate 43.3 ETH (beta), 1σ range 36.5 to 51.4 ETH, 2σ range 30.8 to 60.9 ETH, confidence Low, as of 02:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 02:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, Frumpy Hair -7%, VR +23%.","In the backtest, Male 4+ sales landed within ±6.9% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.6% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/5276","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}