{"punk":529,"name":"CryptoPunk #529","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/529","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/529.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Headband"],"attribute_count":1,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":30.4054,"usd":69131,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":24.6693,"high_eth":37.4754,"low_usd":56089,"high_usd":85205},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":20.0153,"high_eth":46.1892,"low_usd":45507,"high_usd":105017},"sigma_log":0.2091,"multiple_of_floor":1.0005,"n1_eth":30.7154,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Female 0-1","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":30.0052,"usd":68221,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":24.3446,"high_eth":36.9821,"low_usd":55351,"high_usd":84084},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":19.7519,"high_eth":45.5812,"low_usd":44908,"high_usd":103635},"sigma_log":0.2091,"multiple_of_floor":1.0005,"n1_eth":30.3111,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Female 0-1","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":47,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":47,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.4,"public_asks":407,"punk":6263}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Female 0-1","terms":[{"pct":2.8,"beta":0.0274,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":53.2},{"pct":-3.7,"beta":-0.0375,"term":"attr:Headband","label":"Headband","sales_12m":48,"weighted_sales":5.1}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 0-1","seen":{"n":18,"cover1":0.778,"cover2":1,"bias_pct":13.4,"within10":0.222,"within25":0.778,"MdALE_pct":19.5},"thin":true,"sigma":0.209,"selection":{"n":28,"cover1":0.821,"cover2":0.964,"bias_pct":2.3,"within10":0.607,"within25":0.857,"MdALE_pct":9}},"own_sales":[],"comparables":[{"eth":32.3383,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":8505,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.9052,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":29.9,"date":"2026-09-07","punk":8450,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.9299,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":31.79,"date":"2026-08-27","punk":2403,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.3891,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":30.015,"date":"2026-08-07","punk":8505,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":27.8253,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":31,"date":"2026-08-06","punk":2403,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.7207,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":30.501,"date":"2026-07-28","punk":2403,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.2584,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":32.47,"date":"2026-07-12","punk":6603,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.0177,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":33,"date":"2026-07-11","punk":4704,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.5077,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":-0.0101,"type_multiple":{"sales":442,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0107,"median_multiple":1.0107},"no_clear_premium":[],"summary":["Estimate 30.4 ETH (beta), 1σ range 24.7 to 37.5 ETH, 2σ range 20.0 to 46.2 ETH, confidence Medium, as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 23:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (442 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +3%, Headband -4%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 0-1 sales landed within ±9% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±19.5% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/529","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}