{"punk":5418,"name":"CryptoPunk #5418","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/5418","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/5418.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Mustache","Earring","Shaved Head","Nerd Glasses"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":30.6685,"usd":69729,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":27.9439,"high_eth":33.6587,"low_usd":63534,"high_usd":76527},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":25.4614,"high_eth":36.9404,"low_usd":57890,"high_usd":83989},"sigma_log":0.093,"multiple_of_floor":1.0092,"n1_eth":32.3769,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T21:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":30.2648,"usd":68811,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":27.5761,"high_eth":33.2157,"low_usd":62698,"high_usd":75520},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":25.1263,"high_eth":36.4542,"low_usd":57128,"high_usd":82883},"sigma_log":0.093,"multiple_of_floor":1.0092,"n1_eth":31.9507,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T21:04:35.000Z","block":26351205,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":39,"stale":false,"label":"as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T21:04:35.000Z","block":26351205,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":39,"stale":false,"label":"as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 4+","terms":[{"pct":4.7,"beta":0.0457,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-2.4,"beta":-0.0241,"term":"attr:Earring","label":"Earring","sales_12m":306,"weighted_sales":71.1},{"pct":-7.3,"beta":-0.0758,"term":"attr:Shaved Head","label":"Shaved Head","sales_12m":42,"weighted_sales":12.6}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 4+","seen":{"n":276,"cover1":0.736,"cover2":0.931,"bias_pct":1,"within10":0.71,"within25":0.928,"MdALE_pct":5.6},"thin":false,"sigma":0.089,"selection":{"n":293,"cover1":0.683,"cover2":0.932,"bias_pct":1.1,"within10":0.662,"within25":0.949,"MdALE_pct":6.9}},"own_sales":[{"eth":18,"date":"2021-05-11","block":12412945,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":254,"adjusted_eth":33.7387},{"eth":55,"date":"2023-10-27","block":18444108,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":294,"adjusted_eth":36.8592},{"eth":57.47,"date":"2023-12-09","block":18752030,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":235,"adjusted_eth":30.9486},{"eth":27.99,"date":"2024-11-08","block":21145429,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"twin-of-nominal-24h","log_index":331,"adjusted_eth":31.8083},{"eth":0,"date":"2024-11-09","block":21147461,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":39,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":35.9,"date":"2025-02-28","block":21946077,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":143,"adjusted_eth":31.5823},{"eth":37.69,"date":"2025-03-05","block":21983259,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":29,"adjusted_eth":30.1419},{"eth":39.9949,"date":"2025-03-07","block":21996167,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":218,"adjusted_eth":31.195},{"eth":39.99,"date":"2025-03-11","block":22023147,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":564,"adjusted_eth":31.2399},{"eth":37.9,"date":"2025-03-19","block":22077518,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":256,"adjusted_eth":29.5995},{"eth":39.92,"date":"2025-03-23","block":22107495,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":203,"adjusted_eth":29.9375},{"eth":51.7,"date":"2025-07-28","block":23018315,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":99,"adjusted_eth":28.7233},{"eth":53.2,"date":"2025-07-29","block":23025174,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":48,"adjusted_eth":30.1145},{"eth":54.9,"date":"2025-08-09","block":23105172,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":111,"adjusted_eth":29.9518},{"eth":37.5,"date":"2025-11-23","block":23861055,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":364,"adjusted_eth":37.6255}],"comparables":[{"eth":161.5,"date":"2026-09-04","punk":1839,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":157.5597,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":32,"date":"2026-01-20","punk":8135,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.2305,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":57.33,"date":"2025-07-28","punk":5512,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.8512,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":54.5,"date":"2025-07-28","punk":5512,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":30.2789,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":39.5,"date":"2025-01-02","punk":9717,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.3886,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":44,"date":"2024-12-07","punk":5512,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.0055,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":39.99,"date":"2026-09-29","punk":7559,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.8107,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":36,"date":"2026-09-24","punk":192,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.0463,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.0542,"type_multiple":{"sales":778,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0654,"median_multiple":1.0654},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Mustache","sales_12m":51},{"attribute":"Nerd Glasses","sales_12m":64}],"summary":["Estimate 30.7 ETH (beta), 1σ range 27.9 to 33.7 ETH, 2σ range 25.5 to 36.9 ETH, confidence Medium, as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 21:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Earring -2%, Shaved Head -7%.","In the backtest, Male 4+ sales landed within ±6.9% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.6% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/5418","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}