{"punk":5482,"name":"CryptoPunk #5482","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/5482","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/5482.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Handlebars","Knitted Cap"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":33.7698,"usd":76780,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":31.0886,"high_eth":36.6822,"low_usd":70684,"high_usd":83402},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.6202,"high_eth":39.8459,"low_usd":65072,"high_usd":90595},"sigma_log":0.0827,"multiple_of_floor":1.1112,"n1_eth":32.3769,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":33.3253,"usd":75769,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":30.6794,"high_eth":36.1994,"low_usd":69754,"high_usd":82304},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.2435,"high_eth":39.3214,"low_usd":64215,"high_usd":89402},"sigma_log":0.0827,"multiple_of_floor":1.1112,"n1_eth":31.9507,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":47,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":47,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.7,"beta":0.0457,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":10,"beta":0.0957,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":89.3},{"pct":-3.5,"beta":-0.0359,"term":"count2","label":"2 attributes (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":102.4},{"pct":-6.1,"beta":-0.0634,"term":"attr:Handlebars","label":"Handlebars","sales_12m":33,"weighted_sales":11.8}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":1.1,"date":"2020-09-11","block":10840752,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":27,"adjusted_eth":23.9051},{"eth":2.97,"date":"2020-09-25","block":10930230,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"twin-of-nominal-24h","log_index":212,"adjusted_eth":30.7139},{"eth":0.85,"date":"2020-09-25","block":10932777,"source":"native-bid","excluded":"below-half-floor","log_index":285,"adjusted_eth":8.7902},{"eth":46.46,"date":"2021-08-05","block":12967467,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":123,"adjusted_eth":31.3532},{"eth":47,"date":"2021-08-19","block":13056641,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":126,"adjusted_eth":28.9253},{"eth":52,"date":"2021-08-22","block":13075309,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":207,"adjusted_eth":29.4242},{"eth":59.75,"date":"2021-08-23","block":13081193,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":9,"adjusted_eth":26.4761}],"comparables":[{"eth":31.9,"date":"2026-01-25","punk":9795,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.1261,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.57,"date":"2026-01-23","punk":8106,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.5433,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":27.5,"date":"2026-01-19","punk":8106,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.4388,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":25.65,"date":"2026-01-16","punk":9795,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":26.6728,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":40.4,"date":"2026-11-01","punk":7440,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":39.842,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":38,"date":"2026-10-31","punk":2473,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":37.4752,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":30,"date":"2026-10-29","punk":9018,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.0306,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":40,"date":"2026-10-29","punk":4202,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":41.3741,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.0421,"type_multiple":{"sales":778,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0654,"median_multiple":1.0654},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Knitted Cap","sales_12m":49}],"summary":["Estimate 33.8 ETH (beta), 1σ range 31.1 to 36.7 ETH, 2σ range 28.6 to 39.8 ETH, confidence High, as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 23:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -4%, Handlebars -6%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/5482","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}