{"punk":5511,"name":"CryptoPunk #5511","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/5511","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/5511.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Silver Chain","Chinstrap","Cap"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":36.1473,"usd":87588,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":32.8042,"high_eth":39.831,"low_usd":79487,"high_usd":96514},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.7704,"high_eth":43.8901,"low_usd":72136,"high_usd":106349},"sigma_log":0.097,"multiple_of_floor":1.1894,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T08:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":36.1473,"usd":87588,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":32.8042,"high_eth":39.831,"low_usd":79487,"high_usd":96514},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.7704,"high_eth":43.8901,"low_usd":72136,"high_usd":106349},"sigma_log":0.097,"multiple_of_floor":1.1894,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T08:04:35.000Z","block":26354496,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":49,"stale":false,"label":"as of 08:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T08:04:35.000Z","block":26354496,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":49,"stale":false,"label":"as of 08:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":745,"punk":3425}},"listing":{"ask_eth":44.855,"ask_usd":100286,"z":2.23,"z_text":"2.2σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2026-07-21T13:41:11.000Z","days_listed":107},"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":12.6,"beta":0.1184,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":66.5},{"pct":-5.3,"beta":-0.054,"term":"attr:Chinstrap","label":"Chinstrap","sales_12m":42,"weighted_sales":19.3}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.25,"date":"2019-09-02","block":8472872,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":142,"adjusted_eth":25.325},{"eth":0.5,"date":"2019-12-23","block":9148307,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":152,"adjusted_eth":39.9868},{"eth":5,"date":"2021-01-21","block":11701142,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":51,"adjusted_eth":38.1784},{"eth":75,"date":"2022-04-30","block":14687318,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":95,"adjusted_eth":37.3954},{"eth":85,"date":"2022-12-29","block":16292876,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":459,"adjusted_eth":39.4615},{"eth":56,"date":"2024-01-15","block":19009545,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":3,"adjusted_eth":29.0913},{"eth":56.05,"date":"2024-01-18","block":19035256,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":166,"adjusted_eth":29.2673},{"eth":36.435,"date":"2026-07-16","block":25542233,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":217,"adjusted_eth":34.1431}],"comparables":[{"eth":36.4849,"date":"2026-06-26","punk":8614,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.6601,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.65,"date":"2026-05-21","punk":8614,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":29.6366,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.39,"date":"2026-04-24","punk":2650,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.1275,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.75,"date":"2026-03-10","punk":2650,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.3895,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.5,"date":"2026-03-06","punk":2650,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":31.527,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.3,"date":"2026-02-05","punk":8614,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.7802,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.45,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":8233,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.4293,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":33,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":2303,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.9783,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.1099,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Silver Chain","sales_12m":20},{"attribute":"Cap","sales_12m":38}],"summary":["Estimate 36.1 ETH (beta), 1σ range 32.8 to 39.8 ETH, 2σ range 29.8 to 43.9 ETH, confidence Low, as of 08:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 08:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, Chinstrap -5%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/5511","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}