{"punk":553,"name":"CryptoPunk #553","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/553","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/553.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Wild Hair","3D Glasses"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":44.7551,"usd":108445,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":36.7944,"high_eth":54.4382,"low_usd":89156,"high_usd":131908},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.2497,"high_eth":66.2162,"low_usd":73298,"high_usd":160447},"sigma_log":0.1959,"multiple_of_floor":1.4727,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T06:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":44.7551,"usd":108445,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":36.7944,"high_eth":54.4382,"low_usd":89156,"high_usd":131908},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.2497,"high_eth":66.2162,"low_usd":73298,"high_usd":160447},"sigma_log":0.1959,"multiple_of_floor":1.4727,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T06:04:23.000Z","block":26353897,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":39,"stale":false,"label":"as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T06:04:23.000Z","block":26353897,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":39,"stale":false,"label":"as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.4,"public_asks":407,"punk":6263}},"listing":{"ask_eth":62,"ask_usd":138618,"z":1.66,"z_text":"1.7σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2025-08-28T10:40:23.000Z","days_listed":434},"argument":{"cell":"Female 2-3","terms":[{"pct":45.9,"beta":0.3777,"term":"attr:3D Glasses","label":"3D Glasses","sales_12m":11,"weighted_sales":0.9}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 2-3","seen":{"n":839,"cover1":0.634,"cover2":0.871,"bias_pct":-0.6,"within10":0.802,"within25":0.952,"MdALE_pct":4.1},"thin":false,"sigma":0.052,"selection":{"n":1056,"cover1":0.688,"cover2":0.916,"bias_pct":-1.5,"within10":0.841,"within25":0.968,"MdALE_pct":4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":59,"date":"2021-04-14","block":12236702,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":233,"adjusted_eth":88.5437},{"eth":96.69,"date":"2022-03-11","block":14368425,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":128,"adjusted_eth":39.7082},{"eth":79,"date":"2023-07-17","block":17713780,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":301,"adjusted_eth":48.1221},{"eth":79.25,"date":"2023-12-14","block":18782432,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":88,"adjusted_eth":43.933}],"comparables":[{"eth":50,"date":"2026-07-01","punk":4294,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":49.0161,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.88,"date":"2026-10-30","punk":874,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.8017,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":27.09,"date":"2026-10-30","punk":2278,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.8926,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":32.48,"date":"2026-09-23","punk":1707,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.0314,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":35.6,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":8674,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.3606,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":32.05,"date":"2026-08-29","punk":5677,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.5521,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":32,"date":"2026-07-11","punk":4782,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.9778,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":55,"date":"2026-07-02","punk":5361,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":52.2818,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.3777,"type_multiple":{"sales":440,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0095,"median_multiple":1.0095},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Wild Hair","sales_12m":52}],"summary":["Estimate 44.8 ETH (beta), 1σ range 36.8 to 54.4 ETH, 2σ range 30.2 to 66.2 ETH, confidence Low, as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 06:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (440 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: 3D Glasses +46%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 2-3 sales landed within ±4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.1% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/553","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}