{"punk":5583,"name":"CryptoPunk #5583","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/5583","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/5583.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Big Beard","Top Hat","Eye Mask"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":48.576,"usd":110444,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":39.0593,"high_eth":60.4113,"low_usd":88806,"high_usd":137353},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":31.4071,"high_eth":75.1304,"low_usd":71408,"high_usd":170818},"sigma_log":0.218,"multiple_of_floor":1.5984,"n1_eth":32.3769,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":47.9366,"usd":108990,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":38.5452,"high_eth":59.6162,"low_usd":87637,"high_usd":135545},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.9937,"high_eth":74.1415,"low_usd":70468,"high_usd":168570},"sigma_log":0.218,"multiple_of_floor":1.5984,"n1_eth":31.9507,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","block":26351503,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":38,"stale":false,"label":"as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","block":26351503,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":38,"stale":false,"label":"as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.7,"beta":0.0457,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":10,"beta":0.0957,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":89.3},{"pct":30.2,"beta":0.2642,"term":"attr:Top Hat","label":"Top Hat","sales_12m":6,"weighted_sales":1.8}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":2,"date":"2019-06-14","block":7955331,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":127,"adjusted_eth":149.95},{"eth":8,"date":"2020-05-27","block":10148542,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":119,"adjusted_eth":173.8551}],"comparables":[{"eth":72.69,"date":"2025-04-15","punk":1820,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":51.3902,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":49,"date":"2025-02-06","punk":1820,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":39.1974,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":47,"date":"2024-12-23","punk":3017,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.3354,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":36,"date":"2026-09-24","punk":2235,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.0463,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":32.33,"date":"2026-09-11","punk":8557,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.5471,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":34.5,"date":"2026-09-01","punk":7358,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.3633,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":37.49,"date":"2026-08-25","punk":8480,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.6586,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":34.45,"date":"2026-08-21","punk":2524,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.8384,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.4057,"type_multiple":{"sales":778,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0654,"median_multiple":1.0654},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Big Beard","sales_12m":7},{"attribute":"Eye Mask","sales_12m":56}],"summary":["Estimate 48.6 ETH (beta), 1σ range 39.1 to 60.4 ETH, 2σ range 31.4 to 75.1 ETH, confidence Low, as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 22:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, Top Hat +30%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/5583","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}