{"punk":561,"name":"CryptoPunk #561","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/561","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/561.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Top Hat","3D Glasses"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":82.4265,"usd":199726,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":51.317,"high_eth":132.3955,"low_usd":124345,"high_usd":320805},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":31.9488,"high_eth":212.6569,"low_usd":77415,"high_usd":515285},"sigma_log":0.4739,"multiple_of_floor":2.7123,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z","basis":"daily close"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":82.4265,"usd":199726,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":51.317,"high_eth":132.3955,"low_usd":124345,"high_usd":320805},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":31.9488,"high_eth":212.6569,"low_usd":77415,"high_usd":515285},"sigma_log":0.4739,"multiple_of_floor":2.7123,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"daily close","as_of":"2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z","block":null,"eth":30.39,"punk":null,"public_asks":null,"age_minutes":50,"stale":false,"label":"as of 00:00 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"daily close","as_of":"2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z","block":null,"eth":30.39,"punk":null,"public_asks":null,"age_minutes":50,"stale":false,"label":"as of 00:00 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":{"ask_eth":888,"ask_usd":1985368,"z":5.02,"z_text":"5.0σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2022-04-02T01:34:21.000Z","days_listed":1678},"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":10.1,"beta":0.0958,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":88.6},{"pct":-3.5,"beta":-0.0359,"term":"count2","label":"2 attributes (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":101.6},{"pct":30.2,"beta":0.2639,"term":"attr:Top Hat","label":"Top Hat","sales_12m":6,"weighted_sales":1.8},{"pct":75.9,"beta":0.565,"term":"attr:3D Glasses","label":"3D Glasses","sales_12m":11,"weighted_sales":3.6}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":22,"date":"2020-09-15","block":10866132,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":323,"adjusted_eth":346.4145},{"eth":375,"date":"2021-08-06","block":12969037,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":59,"adjusted_eth":232.5765},{"eth":500,"date":"2021-11-08","block":13578563,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":24,"adjusted_eth":195.3838}],"comparables":[{"eth":88.88,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":4746,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":83.289,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":51,"date":"2026-08-21","punk":1326,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":47.7624,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":42,"date":"2026-08-03","punk":6648,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":39.5654,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":67.5,"date":"2026-07-16","punk":4822,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":63.2539,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":58.8889,"date":"2026-07-03","punk":7519,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":55.1675,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":88.88,"date":"2026-06-29","punk":7173,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":85.748,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":278,"date":"2026-06-26","punk":4441,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":264.0957,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":130,"date":"2026-05-19","punk":8870,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":116.2655,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.9342,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[],"summary":["Estimate 82.4 ETH (beta), 1σ range 51.3 to 132 ETH, 2σ range 31.9 to 213 ETH, confidence Low, as of 00:00 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -4%, Top Hat +30%, 3D Glasses +76%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/561","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}