{"punk":5647,"name":"CryptoPunk #5647","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/5647","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/5647.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Goat","Earring","Bandana","Pipe","Nerd Glasses"],"attribute_count":5,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-06","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-06 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-07T00:20:34.586Z","fingerprint_sha256":"76e58439a099cc8cd66c5865a3915bee905a819a57c55e8ad375b9f5abdc46a1"},"estimate":{"eth":32.5852,"usd":72853,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.8088,"high_eth":35.6202,"low_usd":66646,"high_usd":79639},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.269,"high_eth":38.9378,"low_usd":60967,"high_usd":87056},"sigma_log":0.0891,"multiple_of_floor":1.0722,"n1_eth":32.3833,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-07T12:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":32.5852,"usd":72853,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.8088,"high_eth":35.6202,"low_usd":66646,"high_usd":79639},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.269,"high_eth":38.9378,"low_usd":60967,"high_usd":87056},"sigma_log":0.0891,"multiple_of_floor":1.0722,"n1_eth":32.3833,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"76e58439a099cc8cd66c5865a3915bee905a819a57c55e8ad375b9f5abdc46a1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-07T12:04:35.000Z","block":26362856,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":13,"stale":false,"label":"as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2235.7745744284666,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-07","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-07T12:04:35.000Z","block":26362856,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":13,"stale":false,"label":"as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-07","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 4+","terms":[{"pct":4.5,"beta":0.044,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":10.2,"beta":0.0968,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":89},{"pct":-7.3,"beta":-0.0757,"term":"attr:Goat","label":"Goat","sales_12m":37,"weighted_sales":16.6},{"pct":-2.3,"beta":-0.0231,"term":"attr:Earring","label":"Earring","sales_12m":303,"weighted_sales":71},{"pct":-3.5,"beta":-0.0359,"term":"attr:Bandana","label":"Bandana","sales_12m":63,"weighted_sales":13.9}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 4+","seen":{"n":276,"cover1":0.736,"cover2":0.931,"bias_pct":1,"within10":0.71,"within25":0.928,"MdALE_pct":5.6},"thin":false,"sigma":0.089,"selection":{"n":293,"cover1":0.683,"cover2":0.932,"bias_pct":1.1,"within10":0.662,"within25":0.949,"MdALE_pct":6.9}},"own_sales":[{"eth":21.5,"date":"2020-12-23","block":11510862,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":27,"adjusted_eth":163.3463},{"eth":59,"date":"2021-04-15","block":12241975,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":29,"adjusted_eth":91.9964},{"eth":75,"date":"2021-05-03","block":12363573,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":242,"adjusted_eth":111.6185}],"comparables":[{"eth":53,"date":"2026-10-20","punk":1424,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":51.5085,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33,"date":"2026-10-14","punk":3378,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.0508,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33,"date":"2026-10-02","punk":2224,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":30.3992,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":39.99,"date":"2026-09-29","punk":7559,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":36.2883,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34.4999,"date":"2026-09-25","punk":9142,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.1206,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.5,"date":"2026-09-24","punk":9142,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.2186,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.001,"date":"2026-09-24","punk":9142,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.7685,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":36,"date":"2026-09-24","punk":192,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.4737,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.0062,"type_multiple":{"sales":773,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0656,"median_multiple":1.0656},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Pipe","sales_12m":32},{"attribute":"Nerd Glasses","sales_12m":64}],"summary":["Estimate 32.6 ETH (beta), 1σ range 29.8 to 35.6 ETH, 2σ range 27.3 to 38.9 ETH, confidence Medium, as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-06).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 12:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-06.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (773 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, Goat -7%, Earring -2%, Bandana -4%.","In the backtest, Male 4+ sales landed within ±6.9% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.6% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/5647","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}