{"punk":5684,"name":"CryptoPunk #5684","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/5684","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/5684.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Choker","Pilot Helmet"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":67.4371,"usd":163406,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":45.3292,"high_eth":100.3273,"low_usd":109836,"high_usd":243101},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.4689,"high_eth":149.2588,"low_usd":73829,"high_usd":361666},"sigma_log":0.3972,"multiple_of_floor":2.2191,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T05:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":67.4371,"usd":163406,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":45.3292,"high_eth":100.3273,"low_usd":109836,"high_usd":243101},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.4689,"high_eth":149.2588,"low_usd":73829,"high_usd":361666},"sigma_log":0.3972,"multiple_of_floor":2.2191,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T05:04:35.000Z","block":26353598,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":37,"stale":false,"label":"as of 05:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T05:04:35.000Z","block":26353598,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":37,"stale":false,"label":"as of 05:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.4,"public_asks":407,"punk":6263}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Female 2-3","terms":[{"pct":17.7,"beta":0.163,"term":"attr:Choker","label":"Choker","sales_12m":2,"weighted_sales":0.8},{"pct":86.8,"beta":0.6246,"term":"attr:Pilot Helmet","label":"Pilot Helmet","sales_12m":5,"weighted_sales":1.5}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 2-3","seen":{"n":839,"cover1":0.634,"cover2":0.871,"bias_pct":-0.6,"within10":0.802,"within25":0.952,"MdALE_pct":4.1},"thin":false,"sigma":0.052,"selection":{"n":1056,"cover1":0.688,"cover2":0.916,"bias_pct":-1.5,"within10":0.841,"within25":0.968,"MdALE_pct":4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":1,"date":"2017-07-09","block":3997043,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":16,"adjusted_eth":93.5077},{"eth":2,"date":"2017-07-30","block":4093230,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":14,"adjusted_eth":221.0182},{"eth":7.5,"date":"2020-01-04","block":9216096,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":16,"adjusted_eth":495.4891},{"eth":44,"date":"2020-09-06","block":10811031,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":80,"adjusted_eth":1519.5}],"comparables":[{"eth":123,"date":"2026-07-04","punk":382,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":115.2272,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":52,"date":"2026-07-01","punk":5668,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":50.9768,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":100,"date":"2026-06-28","punk":2120,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":93.5077,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":76,"date":"2026-06-27","punk":1438,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":71.0658,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":41,"date":"2026-06-13","punk":7076,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":38.1037,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":52,"date":"2026-03-05","punk":4788,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":52.9407,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":52,"date":"2026-03-05","punk":2889,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":52.9407,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":90.1,"date":"2025-09-03","punk":843,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":57.0564,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.7877,"type_multiple":{"sales":440,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0095,"median_multiple":1.0095},"no_clear_premium":[],"summary":["Estimate 67.4 ETH (beta), 1σ range 45.3 to 100 ETH, 2σ range 30.5 to 149 ETH, confidence Low, as of 05:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 05:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (440 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Choker +18%, Pilot Helmet +87%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 2-3 sales landed within ±4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.1% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/5684","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}