{"punk":5730,"name":"CryptoPunk #5730","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/5730","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/5730.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Mustache","Police Cap"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":36.8066,"usd":89185,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":33.2231,"high_eth":40.7766,"low_usd":80502,"high_usd":98805},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.9885,"high_eth":45.1748,"low_usd":72665,"high_usd":109462},"sigma_log":0.1024,"multiple_of_floor":1.2111,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T11:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":36.8066,"usd":89185,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":33.2231,"high_eth":40.7766,"low_usd":80502,"high_usd":98805},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.9885,"high_eth":45.1748,"low_usd":72665,"high_usd":109462},"sigma_log":0.1024,"multiple_of_floor":1.2111,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T11:04:35.000Z","block":26355395,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":30,"stale":false,"label":"as of 11:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T11:04:35.000Z","block":26355395,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":30,"stale":false,"label":"as of 11:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":745,"punk":3425}},"listing":{"ask_eth":89.1,"ask_usd":199208,"z":8.63,"z_text":"8.6σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2026-05-17T13:19:35.000Z","days_listed":172},"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":12.6,"beta":0.1184,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":66.5},{"pct":-3.5,"beta":-0.0359,"term":"count2","label":"2 attributes (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":101.6}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.49,"date":"2017-07-12","block":4012618,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":43,"adjusted_eth":39.6251},{"eth":2.5,"date":"2020-05-26","block":10142012,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":111,"adjusted_eth":61.2702},{"eth":30,"date":"2021-07-31","block":12930086,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":250,"adjusted_eth":30.4001},{"eth":37.5,"date":"2021-08-01","block":12936684,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":34,"adjusted_eth":34.7977},{"eth":37.51,"date":"2021-08-01","block":12939414,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":296,"adjusted_eth":34.807},{"eth":39.86,"date":"2021-08-01","block":12941009,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":65,"adjusted_eth":36.9876},{"eth":57,"date":"2021-08-11","block":13006944,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":138,"adjusted_eth":37.1086},{"eth":69.69,"date":"2021-08-23","block":13081182,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":143,"adjusted_eth":31.2925},{"eth":81,"date":"2021-08-25","block":13094769,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":186,"adjusted_eth":31.2583},{"eth":96,"date":"2021-08-27","block":13107782,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":243,"adjusted_eth":31.7113},{"eth":0,"date":"2022-12-29","block":16289371,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":201,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":56.69,"date":"2025-08-19","block":23175451,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":807,"adjusted_eth":36.2697},{"eth":33,"date":"2026-02-15","block":24460474,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":590,"adjusted_eth":33.597}],"comparables":[{"eth":30,"date":"2026-02-25","punk":4685,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.1692,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":55.25,"date":"2025-08-23","punk":4685,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.6482,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":39.5,"date":"2025-03-18","punk":325,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.2605,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":38.5,"date":"2025-03-11","punk":325,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.4771,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":38,"date":"2026-10-30","punk":5579,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":40.5285,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":45,"date":"2026-10-24","punk":8879,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":44.5456,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":145,"date":"2026-10-20","punk":7779,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":140.9194,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":43.5,"date":"2026-10-16","punk":6687,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":42.644,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.1279,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Mustache","sales_12m":51},{"attribute":"Police Cap","sales_12m":29}],"summary":["Estimate 36.8 ETH (beta), 1σ range 33.2 to 40.8 ETH, 2σ range 30.0 to 45.2 ETH, confidence Low, as of 11:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 11:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -4%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/5730","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}