{"punk":5774,"name":"CryptoPunk #5774","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/5774","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/5774.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Smile","Front Beard Dark","Cap","Eye Patch"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":40.4715,"usd":98066,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":35.0925,"high_eth":46.6749,"low_usd":85032,"high_usd":113097},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.4284,"high_eth":53.8292,"low_usd":73731,"high_usd":130433},"sigma_log":0.1426,"multiple_of_floor":1.3317,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T10:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":40.4715,"usd":98066,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":35.0925,"high_eth":46.6749,"low_usd":85032,"high_usd":113097},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.4284,"high_eth":53.8292,"low_usd":73731,"high_usd":130433},"sigma_log":0.1426,"multiple_of_floor":1.3317,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T10:04:35.000Z","block":26355095,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":34,"stale":false,"label":"as of 10:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T10:04:35.000Z","block":26355095,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":34,"stale":false,"label":"as of 10:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":745,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 4+","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":10.1,"beta":0.0958,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":88.6},{"pct":17,"beta":0.1572,"term":"attr:Smile","label":"Smile","sales_12m":21,"weighted_sales":7},{"pct":-7.3,"beta":-0.0756,"term":"attr:Front Beard Dark","label":"Front Beard Dark","sales_12m":35,"weighted_sales":13.3}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 4+","seen":{"n":276,"cover1":0.736,"cover2":0.931,"bias_pct":1,"within10":0.71,"within25":0.928,"MdALE_pct":5.6},"thin":false,"sigma":0.089,"selection":{"n":293,"cover1":0.683,"cover2":0.932,"bias_pct":1.1,"within10":0.662,"within25":0.949,"MdALE_pct":6.9}},"own_sales":[{"eth":59,"date":"2023-04-06","block":16992003,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":272,"adjusted_eth":29.8885},{"eth":62,"date":"2023-04-13","block":17035854,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":374,"adjusted_eth":33.6521},{"eth":44,"date":"2025-02-17","block":21867086,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":451,"adjusted_eth":37.6771}],"comparables":[{"eth":95,"date":"2026-07-27","punk":9774,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":89.134,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34.75,"date":"2026-05-20","punk":4371,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":31.0786,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":27.2,"date":"2026-02-01","punk":2718,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.2787,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":52,"date":"2025-10-06","punk":3454,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.4493,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":49,"date":"2025-09-29","punk":2408,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.8936,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":45.69,"date":"2025-09-14","punk":1863,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":28.7062,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":56.33,"date":"2025-08-11","punk":7190,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.2043,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":55.3,"date":"2025-08-10","punk":7190,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.9497,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.2229,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Cap","sales_12m":38},{"attribute":"Eye Patch","sales_12m":74}],"summary":["Estimate 40.5 ETH (beta), 1σ range 35.1 to 46.7 ETH, 2σ range 30.4 to 53.8 ETH, confidence Low, as of 10:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 10:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, Smile +17%, Front Beard Dark -7%.","In the backtest, Male 4+ sales landed within ±6.9% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.6% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/5774","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}