{"punk":5782,"name":"CryptoPunk #5782","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/5782","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/5782.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Normal Beard","Earring","Vampire Hair","VR"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":39.9192,"usd":96727,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":34.7976,"high_eth":45.7946,"low_usd":84317,"high_usd":110964},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.3331,"high_eth":52.5348,"low_usd":73500,"high_usd":127296},"sigma_log":0.1373,"multiple_of_floor":1.3136,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T04:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":39.9192,"usd":96727,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":34.7976,"high_eth":45.7946,"low_usd":84317,"high_usd":110964},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.3331,"high_eth":52.5348,"low_usd":73500,"high_usd":127296},"sigma_log":0.1373,"multiple_of_floor":1.3136,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T04:04:23.000Z","block":26353297,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":61,"stale":false,"label":"as of 04:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T04:04:23.000Z","block":26353297,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":61,"stale":false,"label":"as of 04:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":{"ask_eth":59.99,"ask_usd":134124,"z":2.97,"z_text":"3.0σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2024-12-03T05:10:23.000Z","days_listed":702},"argument":{"cell":"Male 4+","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":10.1,"beta":0.0958,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":88.6},{"pct":-2.4,"beta":-0.0241,"term":"attr:Earring","label":"Earring","sales_12m":303,"weighted_sales":70.6},{"pct":-10.5,"beta":-0.1109,"term":"attr:Vampire Hair","label":"Vampire Hair","sales_12m":18,"weighted_sales":6.5},{"pct":22.5,"beta":0.2029,"term":"attr:VR","label":"VR","sales_12m":24,"weighted_sales":3.6}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 4+","seen":{"n":276,"cover1":0.736,"cover2":0.931,"bias_pct":1,"within10":0.71,"within25":0.928,"MdALE_pct":5.6},"thin":false,"sigma":0.089,"selection":{"n":293,"cover1":0.683,"cover2":0.932,"bias_pct":1.1,"within10":0.662,"within25":0.949,"MdALE_pct":6.9}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.4,"date":"2019-07-06","block":8094714,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":125,"adjusted_eth":35.7529},{"eth":0.797,"date":"2020-01-12","block":9267989,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":37,"adjusted_eth":42.4927},{"eth":0.85,"date":"2020-02-10","block":9458248,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":22,"adjusted_eth":43.7822},{"eth":0.502,"date":"2020-05-29","block":10160678,"source":"native-bid","excluded":"below-half-floor","log_index":26,"adjusted_eth":11.3006},{"eth":50,"date":"2021-07-31","block":12933915,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":40,"adjusted_eth":50.6669},{"eth":99.99,"date":"2021-08-05","block":12967660,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":111,"adjusted_eth":68.3775}],"comparables":[{"eth":56.88,"date":"2025-07-26","punk":2688,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.2361,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":40,"date":"2026-10-29","punk":4202,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":41.9259,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.5,"date":"2026-09-23","punk":4755,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.9431,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.98,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":5133,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.8425,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.99,"date":"2026-09-21","punk":9541,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.3212,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":27.553,"date":"2026-09-14","punk":4755,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.1457,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.85,"date":"2026-09-03","punk":8816,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.4537,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":36.9,"date":"2026-06-11","punk":9541,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.2933,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.2091,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Normal Beard","sales_12m":39}],"summary":["Estimate 39.9 ETH (beta), 1σ range 34.8 to 45.8 ETH, 2σ range 30.3 to 52.5 ETH, confidence Low, as of 04:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 04:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, Earring -2%, Vampire Hair -11%, VR +23%.","In the backtest, Male 4+ sales landed within ±6.9% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.6% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/5782","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}