{"punk":5785,"name":"CryptoPunk #5785","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/5785","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/5785.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":4,"attributes":["Purple Lipstick","Blonde Short","Welding Goggles"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":47.5037,"usd":115105,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":37.9427,"high_eth":59.4739,"low_usd":91938,"high_usd":144110},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.306,"high_eth":74.4604,"low_usd":73434,"high_usd":180424},"sigma_log":0.2247,"multiple_of_floor":1.5631,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T10:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":47.5037,"usd":115105,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":37.9427,"high_eth":59.4739,"low_usd":91938,"high_usd":144110},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.306,"high_eth":74.4604,"low_usd":73434,"high_usd":180424},"sigma_log":0.2247,"multiple_of_floor":1.5631,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T10:04:35.000Z","block":26355095,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":34,"stale":false,"label":"as of 10:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T10:04:35.000Z","block":26355095,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":34,"stale":false,"label":"as of 10:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.4,"public_asks":405,"punk":6263}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Female 2-3","terms":[{"pct":23.3,"beta":0.2095,"term":"tone4","label":"Skin tone 4 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":14.7},{"pct":-2.9,"beta":-0.0292,"term":"attr:Blonde Short","label":"Blonde Short","sales_12m":22,"weighted_sales":9.4},{"pct":29.3,"beta":0.2569,"term":"attr:Welding Goggles","label":"Welding Goggles","sales_12m":4,"weighted_sales":0.8}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 2-3","seen":{"n":839,"cover1":0.634,"cover2":0.871,"bias_pct":-0.6,"within10":0.802,"within25":0.952,"MdALE_pct":4.1},"thin":false,"sigma":0.052,"selection":{"n":1056,"cover1":0.688,"cover2":0.916,"bias_pct":-1.5,"within10":0.841,"within25":0.968,"MdALE_pct":4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":21,"date":"2021-02-01","block":11768380,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":5,"adjusted_eth":125.1353},{"eth":35,"date":"2021-02-02","block":11775567,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":48,"adjusted_eth":199.5591},{"eth":59,"date":"2021-03-11","block":12016243,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":27,"adjusted_eth":85.3814},{"eth":230,"date":"2021-08-28","block":13115189,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":35,"adjusted_eth":50.7615}],"comparables":[{"eth":52.5,"date":"2026-07-07","punk":1470,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":49.1823,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.25,"date":"2026-07-03","punk":7056,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.2752,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.48,"date":"2026-06-25","punk":8999,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.4153,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31,"date":"2026-06-22","punk":7056,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.9963,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":40.9,"date":"2026-02-06","punk":3648,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":41.626,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.4,"date":"2025-11-14","punk":7056,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.2713,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":51,"date":"2025-08-23","punk":8364,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.0599,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":66.69,"date":"2025-07-24","punk":9438,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":40.5423,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.4373,"type_multiple":{"sales":440,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0095,"median_multiple":1.0095},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Purple Lipstick","sales_12m":66}],"summary":["Estimate 47.5 ETH (beta), 1σ range 37.9 to 59.5 ETH, 2σ range 30.3 to 74.5 ETH, confidence Low, as of 10:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 10:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (440 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Skin tone 4 (vs 1) +23%, Blonde Short -3%, Welding Goggles +29%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 2-3 sales landed within ±4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.1% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/5785","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}