{"punk":5864,"name":"CryptoPunk #5864","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/5864","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/5864.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Do-rag","Cigarette","Small Shades"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":35.2493,"usd":85412,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":32.1987,"high_eth":38.5889,"low_usd":78020,"high_usd":93504},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.4121,"high_eth":42.245,"low_usd":71268,"high_usd":102363},"sigma_log":0.0905,"multiple_of_floor":1.1599,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T07:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":35.2493,"usd":85412,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":32.1987,"high_eth":38.5889,"low_usd":78020,"high_usd":93504},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.4121,"high_eth":42.245,"low_usd":71268,"high_usd":102363},"sigma_log":0.0905,"multiple_of_floor":1.1599,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T07:04:35.000Z","block":26354196,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":42,"stale":false,"label":"as of 07:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T07:04:35.000Z","block":26354196,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":42,"stale":false,"label":"as of 07:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":10.1,"beta":0.0958,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":88.6},{"pct":-5.5,"beta":-0.0565,"term":"attr:Do-rag","label":"Do-rag","sales_12m":51,"weighted_sales":17.8}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":15,"date":"2021-06-26","block":12708591,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":357,"adjusted_eth":31.3299},{"eth":22.5,"date":"2021-07-14","block":12823058,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":65,"adjusted_eth":34.9043},{"eth":77.39,"date":"2022-08-04","block":15277960,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":84,"adjusted_eth":30.9662},{"eth":71,"date":"2022-08-30","block":15442064,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":28,"adjusted_eth":31.9895},{"eth":49.5,"date":"2025-05-13","block":22473200,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":302,"adjusted_eth":31.3462},{"eth":51.9,"date":"2025-05-22","block":22541288,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":337,"adjusted_eth":33.6442}],"comparables":[{"eth":27.95,"date":"2026-04-17","punk":6508,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.7059,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":26.69,"date":"2026-04-12","punk":6508,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.2397,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":28.45,"date":"2026-04-11","punk":6508,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.0815,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":31,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":3960,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.05,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":41,"date":"2026-08-05","punk":8123,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":39.3057,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.95,"date":"2026-06-05","punk":9548,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.3425,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.49,"date":"2026-01-27","punk":8627,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.4863,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":27.5,"date":"2026-01-19","punk":3020,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.8181,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.0847,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Cigarette","sales_12m":110},{"attribute":"Small Shades","sales_12m":44}],"summary":["Estimate 35.2 ETH (beta), 1σ range 32.2 to 38.6 ETH, 2σ range 29.4 to 42.2 ETH, confidence High, as of 07:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 07:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, Do-rag -6%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/5864","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}