{"punk":5865,"name":"CryptoPunk #5865","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/5865","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/5865.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Goat","Peak Spike","Horned Rim Glasses"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":32.5414,"usd":73987,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":30.0384,"high_eth":35.2531,"low_usd":68296,"high_usd":80152},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.7278,"high_eth":38.1908,"low_usd":63043,"high_usd":86832},"sigma_log":0.08,"multiple_of_floor":1.0708,"n1_eth":32.3769,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T21:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":32.1131,"usd":73013,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.643,"high_eth":34.7891,"low_usd":67397,"high_usd":79097},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.3628,"high_eth":37.6881,"low_usd":62213,"high_usd":85689},"sigma_log":0.08,"multiple_of_floor":1.0708,"n1_eth":31.9507,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T21:04:35.000Z","block":26351205,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":52,"stale":false,"label":"as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T21:04:35.000Z","block":26351205,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":52,"stale":false,"label":"as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.7,"beta":0.0457,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":10,"beta":0.0957,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":89.3},{"pct":-7.3,"beta":-0.0761,"term":"attr:Goat","label":"Goat","sales_12m":38,"weighted_sales":16.8},{"pct":-5.8,"beta":-0.0602,"term":"attr:Peak Spike","label":"Peak Spike","sales_12m":41,"weighted_sales":14.7}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":14,"date":"2021-06-10","block":12607285,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":35,"adjusted_eth":28.9559},{"eth":14.5,"date":"2021-06-17","block":12653277,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":81,"adjusted_eth":28.4219},{"eth":15.15,"date":"2021-06-18","block":12660751,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":301,"adjusted_eth":31.3344}],"comparables":[{"eth":33.88,"date":"2026-08-21","punk":8332,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.3116,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.1701,"date":"2026-06-11","punk":8332,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.5869,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":39.9,"date":"2025-10-31","punk":8783,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.3493,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":39.5,"date":"2025-07-01","punk":7806,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.3745,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":48.75,"date":"2025-06-02","punk":8488,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.9566,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":46.55,"date":"2025-06-01","punk":8488,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.5144,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":47.49,"date":"2025-05-19","punk":1235,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.3091,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":51.99,"date":"2025-03-24","punk":3067,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":37.301,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.0051,"type_multiple":{"sales":778,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0654,"median_multiple":1.0654},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Horned Rim Glasses","sales_12m":50}],"summary":["Estimate 32.5 ETH (beta), 1σ range 30.0 to 35.3 ETH, 2σ range 27.7 to 38.2 ETH, confidence High, as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 21:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, Goat -7%, Peak Spike -6%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/5865","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}