{"punk":591,"name":"CryptoPunk #591","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/591","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/591.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Goat","Shaved Head","Small Shades"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":32.7726,"usd":74513,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":30.2459,"high_eth":35.5103,"low_usd":68768,"high_usd":80737},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.9141,"high_eth":38.4766,"low_usd":63466,"high_usd":87482},"sigma_log":0.0802,"multiple_of_floor":1.0784,"n1_eth":32.3769,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":32.3412,"usd":73532,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.8478,"high_eth":35.0429,"low_usd":67863,"high_usd":79674},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.5467,"high_eth":37.9702,"low_usd":62631,"high_usd":86330},"sigma_log":0.0802,"multiple_of_floor":1.0784,"n1_eth":31.9507,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":44,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":44,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.7,"beta":0.0457,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":12.6,"beta":0.1184,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":67},{"pct":-7.3,"beta":-0.0761,"term":"attr:Goat","label":"Goat","sales_12m":38,"weighted_sales":16.8},{"pct":-7.3,"beta":-0.0758,"term":"attr:Shaved Head","label":"Shaved Head","sales_12m":42,"weighted_sales":12.6}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":21,"date":"2021-03-13","block":12028364,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":250,"adjusted_eth":28.6659},{"eth":22.3,"date":"2021-03-13","block":12032697,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":97,"adjusted_eth":30.4405},{"eth":48,"date":"2022-06-11","block":14943906,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":9,"adjusted_eth":29.7483},{"eth":55,"date":"2022-06-15","block":14970011,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":56,"adjusted_eth":33.8002},{"eth":69,"date":"2022-10-14","block":15747134,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":9,"adjusted_eth":31.3579},{"eth":70,"date":"2022-10-17","block":15768842,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":87,"adjusted_eth":31.5305},{"eth":73.9,"date":"2022-10-18","block":15776975,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":136,"adjusted_eth":33.2872}],"comparables":[{"eth":31.45,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":8233,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.0156,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.53,"date":"2026-10-28","punk":8233,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.628,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":35.17,"date":"2026-10-03","punk":1241,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.9718,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":48.88,"date":"2026-07-02","punk":1575,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":45.8527,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30,"date":"2026-01-09","punk":1567,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":30.8328,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.5,"date":"2026-01-06","punk":1823,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.5,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":43.9849,"date":"2024-12-21","punk":1241,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.0107,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":41.8,"date":"2024-12-18","punk":1241,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.1526,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.0121,"type_multiple":{"sales":778,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0654,"median_multiple":1.0654},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Small Shades","sales_12m":46}],"summary":["Estimate 32.8 ETH (beta), 1σ range 30.2 to 35.5 ETH, 2σ range 27.9 to 38.5 ETH, confidence High, as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 23:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, Goat -7%, Shaved Head -7%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/591","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}