{"punk":6016,"name":"CryptoPunk #6016","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/6016","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/6016.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Gold Chain","Front Beard Dark","Peak Spike","Cigarette"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":29.5874,"usd":71693,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":26.7766,"high_eth":32.6931,"low_usd":64882,"high_usd":79218},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":24.2329,"high_eth":36.1249,"low_usd":58718,"high_usd":87534},"sigma_log":0.0998,"multiple_of_floor":0.9736,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T06:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":29.5874,"usd":71693,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":26.7766,"high_eth":32.6931,"low_usd":64882,"high_usd":79218},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":24.2329,"high_eth":36.1249,"low_usd":58718,"high_usd":87534},"sigma_log":0.0998,"multiple_of_floor":0.9736,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T06:04:23.000Z","block":26353897,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":49,"stale":false,"label":"as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T06:04:23.000Z","block":26353897,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":49,"stale":false,"label":"as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 4+","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-7.3,"beta":-0.0756,"term":"attr:Front Beard Dark","label":"Front Beard Dark","sales_12m":35,"weighted_sales":13.3},{"pct":-5.8,"beta":-0.0603,"term":"attr:Peak Spike","label":"Peak Spike","sales_12m":41,"weighted_sales":14.6}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 4+","seen":{"n":276,"cover1":0.736,"cover2":0.931,"bias_pct":1,"within10":0.71,"within25":0.928,"MdALE_pct":5.6},"thin":false,"sigma":0.089,"selection":{"n":293,"cover1":0.683,"cover2":0.932,"bias_pct":1.1,"within10":0.662,"within25":0.949,"MdALE_pct":6.9}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.4,"date":"2019-06-21","block":8001910,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":29,"adjusted_eth":28.0092},{"eth":0.6,"date":"2020-01-04","block":9210819,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":22,"adjusted_eth":39.6391},{"eth":30,"date":"2021-02-23","block":11916333,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":48,"adjusted_eth":38.9615}],"comparables":[{"eth":31.88,"date":"2026-09-21","punk":9065,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.2527,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":38.99,"date":"2026-09-07","punk":1020,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":39.5496,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.86,"date":"2026-08-31","punk":9065,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":29.3165,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.22,"date":"2026-07-03","punk":5450,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.1839,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.49,"date":"2026-04-22","punk":1106,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.0842,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":35.5,"date":"2026-04-22","punk":2830,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":37.3561,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.38,"date":"2026-04-22","punk":9065,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.9161,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":27.67,"date":"2026-04-17","punk":5450,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.3883,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.0904,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Gold Chain","sales_12m":24},{"attribute":"Cigarette","sales_12m":110}],"summary":["Estimate 29.6 ETH (beta), 1σ range 26.8 to 32.7 ETH, 2σ range 24.2 to 36.1 ETH, confidence Low, as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 06:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Front Beard Dark -7%, Peak Spike -6%.","In the backtest, Male 4+ sales landed within ±6.9% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.6% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/6016","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}