{"punk":6134,"name":"CryptoPunk #6134","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/6134","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/6134.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":4,"attributes":["Muttonchops","Frumpy Hair"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":32.9332,"usd":74878,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":30.3875,"high_eth":35.6923,"low_usd":69090,"high_usd":81151},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.0384,"high_eth":38.6824,"low_usd":63749,"high_usd":87949},"sigma_log":0.0805,"multiple_of_floor":1.0837,"n1_eth":32.3769,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T21:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":32.4997,"usd":73892,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.9875,"high_eth":35.2225,"low_usd":68180,"high_usd":80083},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.6694,"high_eth":38.1733,"low_usd":62910,"high_usd":86792},"sigma_log":0.0805,"multiple_of_floor":1.0837,"n1_eth":31.9507,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T21:04:35.000Z","block":26351205,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":55,"stale":false,"label":"as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T21:04:35.000Z","block":26351205,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":55,"stale":false,"label":"as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.7,"beta":0.0457,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":19.8,"beta":0.1805,"term":"tone4","label":"Skin tone 4 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":25.9},{"pct":-3.5,"beta":-0.0359,"term":"count2","label":"2 attributes (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":102.4},{"pct":-9.3,"beta":-0.0973,"term":"attr:Muttonchops","label":"Muttonchops","sales_12m":48,"weighted_sales":15.8},{"pct":-7.3,"beta":-0.076,"term":"attr:Frumpy Hair","label":"Frumpy Hair","sales_12m":60,"weighted_sales":20}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.2,"date":"2017-08-05","block":4119839,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":14,"adjusted_eth":23.992},{"eth":0.3,"date":"2017-08-14","block":4158313,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":23,"adjusted_eth":51.5753},{"eth":1,"date":"2020-02-25","block":9551509,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":225,"adjusted_eth":53.5536},{"eth":4.5,"date":"2021-02-02","block":11777749,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":80,"adjusted_eth":25.3199},{"eth":4.99,"date":"2021-02-08","block":11814912,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":239,"adjusted_eth":25.3644}],"comparables":[{"eth":32.42,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":2647,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.9808,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":140,"date":"2025-08-05","punk":9797,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":81.5262,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":44.59,"date":"2025-01-26","punk":8078,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.6957,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":46.99,"date":"2024-12-03","punk":6048,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.8542,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":3391,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.5857,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":29.5,"date":"2026-10-25","punk":9404,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":28.8271,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":29,"date":"2026-10-20","punk":7711,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":27.8129,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":30.4,"date":"2026-10-15","punk":5098,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.419,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.017,"type_multiple":{"sales":778,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0654,"median_multiple":1.0654},"no_clear_premium":[],"summary":["Estimate 32.9 ETH (beta), 1σ range 30.4 to 35.7 ETH, 2σ range 28.0 to 38.7 ETH, confidence High, as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 21:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 4 (vs 1) +20%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -4%, Muttonchops -9%, Frumpy Hair -7%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/6134","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}