{"punk":6140,"name":"CryptoPunk #6140","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/6140","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/6140.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Frown","Spots","Wild Hair"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":33.8918,"usd":82123,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":31.1873,"high_eth":36.8309,"low_usd":75569,"high_usd":89244},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.6986,"high_eth":40.0248,"low_usd":69539,"high_usd":96983},"sigma_log":0.0832,"multiple_of_floor":1.1152,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T07:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":33.8918,"usd":82123,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":31.1873,"high_eth":36.8309,"low_usd":75569,"high_usd":89244},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.6986,"high_eth":40.0248,"low_usd":69539,"high_usd":96983},"sigma_log":0.0832,"multiple_of_floor":1.1152,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T07:04:35.000Z","block":26354196,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":9,"stale":false,"label":"as of 07:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T07:04:35.000Z","block":26354196,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":9,"stale":false,"label":"as of 07:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":{"ask_eth":55.301,"ask_usd":123641,"z":5.88,"z_text":"5.9σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2025-09-29T16:07:11.000Z","days_listed":402},"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.1,"date":"2017-06-25","block":3926659,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":18,"adjusted_eth":21.7071},{"eth":0.2,"date":"2017-07-01","block":3960063,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":4,"adjusted_eth":30.39},{"eth":0.4,"date":"2017-07-14","block":4021999,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":12,"adjusted_eth":32.8541},{"eth":0.3,"date":"2019-03-14","block":7367223,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":44,"adjusted_eth":30.4916},{"eth":0.99,"date":"2020-05-19","block":10099192,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":81,"adjusted_eth":37.6076},{"eth":1.9,"date":"2020-05-26","block":10142064,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":73,"adjusted_eth":46.5653},{"eth":23.6,"date":"2021-07-16","block":12839900,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":280,"adjusted_eth":36.0404},{"eth":46.085,"date":"2025-09-29","block":23469737,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"relay-same-block","log_index":64,"adjusted_eth":29.9962},{"eth":46.0842,"date":"2025-09-29","block":23469737,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":68,"adjusted_eth":29.9957}],"comparables":[{"eth":54.46,"date":"2025-09-02","punk":8186,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":36.1757,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":52.5,"date":"2025-08-21","punk":1794,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.3113,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":51.5,"date":"2025-08-13","punk":1794,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.0978,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":46.3,"date":"2024-12-03","punk":7042,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.8051,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":44.95,"date":"2024-12-01","punk":7042,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.7755,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":39.69,"date":"2024-11-14","punk":5877,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":36.562,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":27.62,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":3425,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":27.6018,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":40.4,"date":"2026-11-01","punk":7440,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":40.3734,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.0454,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Frown","sales_12m":40},{"attribute":"Spots","sales_12m":14},{"attribute":"Wild Hair","sales_12m":52}],"summary":["Estimate 33.9 ETH (beta), 1σ range 31.2 to 36.8 ETH, 2σ range 28.7 to 40.0 ETH, confidence Low, as of 07:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 07:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/6140","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}