{"punk":6151,"name":"CryptoPunk #6151","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/6151","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/6151.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":4,"attributes":["Handlebars","Hoodie","3D Glasses"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":226.5083,"usd":514995,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":85.3558,"high_eth":601.084,"low_usd":194067,"high_usd":1366641},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":32.1649,"high_eth":1595.0938,"low_usd":73131,"high_usd":3626649},"sigma_log":0.976,"multiple_of_floor":7.4534,"n1_eth":32.3769,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":223.5269,"usd":508217,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":84.2323,"high_eth":593.1724,"low_usd":191513,"high_usd":1348653},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":31.7415,"high_eth":1574.0988,"low_usd":72168,"high_usd":3578914},"sigma_log":0.976,"multiple_of_floor":7.4534,"n1_eth":31.9507,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":47,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":47,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.7,"beta":0.0457,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":19.8,"beta":0.1805,"term":"tone4","label":"Skin tone 4 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":25.9},{"pct":-6.1,"beta":-0.0634,"term":"attr:Handlebars","label":"Handlebars","sales_12m":33,"weighted_sales":11.8},{"pct":237.6,"beta":1.2167,"term":"attr:Hoodie","label":"Hoodie","sales_12m":20,"weighted_sales":7.1},{"pct":76.1,"beta":0.5659,"term":"attr:3D Glasses","label":"3D Glasses","sales_12m":11,"weighted_sales":3.6}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[],"comparables":[{"eth":278,"date":"2026-06-26","punk":4441,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":260.6196,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":205,"date":"2026-05-04","punk":6634,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":198.6414,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":49.99,"date":"2025-10-30","punk":5355,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":39.4526,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":78,"date":"2025-10-25","punk":3677,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":60.1342,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":72.69,"date":"2025-08-10","punk":3677,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":40.1468,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":148.5,"date":"2025-07-25","punk":1484,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":85.661,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":135,"date":"2025-03-26","punk":6935,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":98.7717,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":222.5,"date":"2025-03-19","punk":6634,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":173.7702,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":1.9453,"type_multiple":{"sales":778,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0654,"median_multiple":1.0654},"no_clear_premium":[],"summary":["Estimate 227 ETH (beta), 1σ range 85.4 to 601 ETH, 2σ range 32.2 to 1,595 ETH, confidence Low, as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 23:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 4 (vs 1) +20%, Handlebars -6%, Hoodie +238%, 3D Glasses +76%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/6151","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}